Agni Missiles: More than what meets the eye?

[kurup]

Agni missiles are a family of intermediate- and long-range ballistic missiles developed by India under Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP). An inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) is a ballistic missile with a range of more than 5,500 kilometers (3,400 mi) while an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) is a ballistic missile with a range of 3,000–5,000 km (1,865–3,100 miles). India started its quest for a declared IRBM capability with the birth of the IGMDP on July 22nd 1983 and the Agni program started along with it. The first technology demonstrator version of the Agni missile was tested in 1989 from the interim test range at Chandipur on sea in Orissa. The Agni-I and the Agni-II are the two versions of this missile that have currently been operationally deployed by the armed forces in a declared capacity with maximum declared ranges of 750Km and 3000Km respectively. The Agni-I is operational with the 334 Missile group at Secunderabad while the Agni-II is operational with the 335 Missile Group also at Secunderabad.

Agni V Missile Launch


The program was further expanded to include two new Agni Missiles called the Agni-III and the Agni-V in the late 2000’s. The first successful test of the Agni-III missile took place on the 12th of April 2007 with subsequent successful tests on the 7th of May 2008 and February 7th 2010, and subsequently the missile was declared successfully inducted into the armed forces on June 2011 and a missile group is currently being raised to utilize these missiles. The Strategic Forces Command (SFC) has also conducted a successful user test of the Agni-III with the test of an operational SFC missile on the 21st of September 2012. The Agni-V missile for its part was first tested on 19th April 2012 and was declared to be an ICBM with a maximum range of 5,800Km.

With this context let’s move on to more interesting aspect of Agni missiles Agni-III and Agni-V where I have compared them to contemporary intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) and long-range ballistic missile (LRBMs) in the Table 1 and ICBMs in Table 2.

Table 1. Agni Missiles versus contemporary IRBMs and LRBMs

Two BM25 Musudan missiles on the 65 KWP anniversary parade, 10 October 2010

The DF-21D Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM)


If you notice carefully, you can see how the Agni-III IRBM and Agni-V LRBM seem to be much larger and heavier than any of their contemporaries around the world, which indicates that these missiles carry far more fuel than what is declared pointing towards a potential for far greater ranges. Take for example, a comparably modern Chinese DF-21 road mobile IRBM carries only 14,700Kg of fuel compared to the Agni-III’s 48,000Kg while achieving the same range. Similarly, an Israeli Jericho-II IRBM carries nearly 20,000Kg less fuel while matching the range of an Agni-III. Up on further comparison, one can clearly see that all of the contemporary IRBMs and LRBMs deployed in the world today have comparable characteristics except for the Agni missiles that seem to stick out as a sore thumb (please note that Agni-III or V are not compared to the Pakistani Missiles because there is no equivalent Pakistani ballistic missile). The Agni missiles carry a lot more fuel and are bigger than their peers (please note that for determining range correctly we also have to factor in the warhead weight and type of propellant used, here it is assumed that the propellant used in the Agni missiles must be at least as developed as the one used by the DF-21 or the Jericho. Also the warhead weight is derived from open sources only). All said and done, the Agni series of missiles still look to be quite unique in this segment which leads us to the assumption that there is more to the Agni missile than what meets the eye.

To strengthen this point further, here is a comparison of the Agni missiles with full fledged ICBM’s from around the world in Table 2.

Table 2. Agni missiles versus contemporary ICBMs


The Agni series of missiles fits in perfectly with these ICBM missiles group, the difference being that these missiles are with far more range and capability than the declared intent of the Agni missiles. In this ICBM group, we have the Minuteman III a 13,000Km range monster that is today the mainstay of the American land based strategic missile systems, the TOPOL-M an 11,000Km beast that fulfils the same task for the Russians and the long arm of the Chinese military the DF-41 rounds off the trio with a reported range of 14,000Km. Going through the ICBM comparison chart, one can see that even in this group the Agni missiles are the heaviest when it comes to total weight at launch but the shortest when it comes to range. Now the only factor that stands out as restricting the range of the Agni missiles is the warhead weight, the Agni-III has by far the heaviest warhead of the group weighing in at a whopping 2500 Kgs compared to the more sedate 1500 Kgs of its sibling that compares very favorably with the “Big Boys”. However, this weight is that of a conventional warhead filled with high explosives but with a Nuclear warhead this should be much lower. If we assume that the Indian Nuclear weapons program is at least as developed as the American program was in the eighties (assuming a thirty year lead on India) India should still be able to build warheads such as the W71, W62 (with mark-12 reentry vehicle) and W85 which respectively weigh 1290kg, 500Kg and 400kg. These facts points to the assumption that the payload is going to be a lot lighter for an Agni missile even with three Multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) warheads of the W62 category with approximately the same kind of reentry vehicle.

Topol M

Minuteman III[

DF-41 ICBM


Another factor that could come into play for the reduced range (however unlikely) is that the Agni missiles have incredibly inefficient engines that burn fuel at twice the rate of its contemporary missiles. However, in such a case the velocity of the missile should be a lot more than its contemporaries as well to compensate for the much larger quantity of exhaust gases and thus increased thrust of the engine. Even in such a case we see that, as per the publicly available reported statistics of the first Agni-V test in April 2012, the missile is believed to have travelled 5000 Km approximately in a span of 1130 seconds i.e. achieving an average velocity of 4.24km/sec or around 13 Mach (disputable since the Agni-V flies at an altitude of 100Km and velocity of sound taken is at sea level). News reports also indicate that the Agni-V attained a velocity of up to 7,000 m/sec or around 20.5mach similar to that of Chinese DF-41 which has an average velocity of 10-25 Mach as well which also corresponds to the average velocity of all well-known Missiles. And therefore it is not the engines either which is responsible for such large size.

I believe that for once shrewd and prudent decisions have been taken in our Ministry of Defence and what we have in the Agni-III and Agni-V are quite possibly full-fledged ICBMs masquerading as IRBMs.

Note: All information used in this analysis has come from open sources. Also the exact thickness of the missile cylinder is unknown for all cases. I have also assumed that almost the entire launch weight shall be the fuel weight.

Agni Missiles: More than what meets the eye? | Missile ThreatMissile Threat

 

[PRINCE_THE_SHOWSTOPPER]

Great article..thanks mate

 

[zaxcollix]

If you look at that table closely it will become clear that range of Agni V with 1000-15000 kg warhead is at least 8,000 KM

No wonder China kept saying that was was pi$$ed that the word kept quite about it.

 

[kṣamā]

Someone can argue that Agni series has the worst possible missile frame structure pumping up the wt.

 

[ashok321]

This is a double edged sword that cuts both ways. How capable is a missile to its max limits?
And what are those?

Lets talk about a hypothetical situation, and that is: India wants to attack Paris, which our Agni is capable of with 1000KG payload.
But the threat perception has changed, now India wants to attack Oslo (Norway). But hey, we dont have that range. Okey guys, reduce the warhead weight to 700KG and let Agni travel that long with lesser payload.

Its all about range vs Payload.

MTCR has closed some loopholes on this:

MTCR Closes Some Loopholes | Arms Control Association

Talking about the same imbroglio of MTCR vs missile's range n payload:

Exhibit A is Brahmos — a Russo-Indian cruise missile with a range greater than 150 miles (Russia and India claim 290 kilometers, just under the MTCR threshold.) Russia and India intend to sell Brahmos — which is a portmanteau of the Brahmaputra and Moskva Rivers — to other countries. The website for the missile states that it has drawn interest from “Malaysia, Vietnam, South Africa, Indonesia, Thailand, Egypt, Oman, Brunei and other African & Middle Eastern countries.” Isn’t that just wonderful?

Although Brahmos is MTCR-compliant, it is easily modified to extend the range. The possibility that other countries might purchase Brahmos and extend the range resulted in a very unusual event: a Russian defense official telling the Press Trust of India that Moscow was “not keen” on selling the missile to third countries:

“This is a very lethal and potent weapon system, which can upset balance of forces in any region where it may appear, be it in our neighbourhood, Indian Ocean or Latin America.

“India is one thing, she is our strategic partnership and poses no military threat to Russia, but we are not keen on giving it to other countries, be it China or any other friendly nation,” Colonel-General Anatoly Mazurkevich told PTI.

Mazurkevich, who heads international cooperation department of the Russian defence ministry, said that one of the reasons for not Russia not keen to export this weapon, “highly lethal for potential enemies”, is that its range could be easily extended from the current 300 km, allowed under Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).

“We are not worried about it as we have nuclear weapons, but this (unauthorised extension of range) may pose threat not only to India but also to our other friends and allies,” Mazurkevich underscored.

It is really spectacular to imagine a weapon destabilizing enough to give a Russian officer pause. I am not sure how successful we can be in stopping the export of cruise missiles like Brahmos, but I sure as hell want to try. The MTCR is going to be a crucial part of that.

 

[Anony]

Someone can argue that Agni series has the worst possible missile frame structure pumping up the wt.

With 1500kg warhead Agni V can travel 5800km, i.e. with 1000kg warhead it can easily travel close to 8000km.

 

[Safriz]

Then there is the issue of warhead reliability....
A missile this big has to carry large warheads of 100-200 kt.....and india hasnt tested any of such strength..
It has happened before that nuclear warheads failed to detonate o target..due to design flaws...
Where will india stand if that happens?

 

[Anony]

Then there is the issue of warhead reliability....
A missile this big has to carry large warheads of 100-200 kt.....and india hasnt tested any of such strength..
It has happened before that nuclear warheads failed to detonate o target..due to design flaws...
Where will india stand if that happens?

The missile has already been tested with dummy warhead acting as nuclear weapon both on ground and on air.

 

[Broccoli]

Person who did write that article shows Minuteman II and claims that it is Minuteman III, and similar mistake when he claims that DF-31 from 1999 parade is the DF-41.

Someone can argue that Agni series has the worst possible missile frame structure pumping up the wt.

If i'm not mistaken Agni III is constructed from steel and Agni V's third stage is made from same steel.

 

[Hellraiser007]

Then there is the issue of warhead reliability....
A missile this big has to carry large warheads of 100-200 kt.....and india hasnt tested any of such strength..
It has happened before that nuclear warheads failed to detonate o target..due to design flaws...
Where will india stand if that happens?

Testing the trigger mechanism is not same as detonating megaton nuke. Those trigger mechanism can also be tested a micro level which do not need huge nuclear blasts.

 

[qwerrty]

If you look at that table closely it will become clear that range of Agni V with 1000-15000 kg warhead is at least 8,000 KM

With 1500kg warhead Agni V can travel 5800km, i.e. with 1000kg warhead it can easily travel close to 8000km.

don't forget india has the weakest nuke yield compare to other nuclear powers. 1 mil ton of payload don't matter at all if it yields only as strong as my fart

On May 11, 1998, India tested three devices at the Pokhran underground testing site, followed by two more tests on May 13, 1998. The nuclear tests carried out at 3:45 pm on May 11th were claimed by the Indian government to be a simultaneous detonation of three different devices - a fission device with a yield of about 12 kilotons (KT), a thermonuclear device with a yield of about 43 KT, and a sub-kiloton device. The two tests carried out at 12:21 pm on May 13th were also detonated simultaneously with reported yields in the range of 0.2 to 0.6 KT.

However, there is some controversy about these claims. Based on seismic data, U.S. government sources and independent experts estimated the yield of the so-called thermonuclear test in the range of 12-25 kilotons, as opposed to the 43-60 kiloton yield claimed by India. This lower yield raised skepticism about India's claims to have detonated a thermonuclear device.

Observers initially suggested that the test could have been a boosted fission device, rather than a true multi-stage thermonuclear device. By late 1998 analysts at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory had concluded that the India had attempted to detonate a thermonuclear device, but that the second stage of the two-stage bomb failed to ignite as planned.

*ttp://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/india/nuke/

 

[Hulk]

I do not believe in speculating. I believe in facts.

 

[zaxcollix]

don't forget india has the weakest nuke yield compare to other nuclear powers. 1 mil ton of payload don't matter at all if it yields only as strong as my fart

Is that why Malaysia has no nukes ? they rely on your farts ? .............you must really stink.

 

[qwerrty]

fart 1: seismic reading of indian nuke test was too low for a h-bomb
fart 2: india refuse to sign nuclear arms treaty. why is that? becasue she hasn't exploded a thermonuclear yet. she needs to successfully test one first, so she can collect the data for simulation with supercomputer later on. you cannot simulate without data. need to to do physical test, so no signing treaty yet. too obvious..

 

[Cherokee]

fart 1: seismic reading of indian nuke test was too low for a h-bomb
fart 2: india refuse to sign nuclear arms treaty. why is that? becasue she hasn't exploded a thermonuclear yet. she needs to successfully test one first, so she can collect the data for simulation with supercomputer later on. you cannot simulate without data. need to to do physical test, so no signing treaty yet. too obvious..

Fart 3: I haven't gone to my supervisor so my script still sucks .