According to the US military chief of staff: Ukraine's victory may not be achieved militarily.

[chinasun]

the Joint Chiefs chair. The four-star general said during an appearance at the Economic Club of New York that a victory by Ukraine may not be achieved militarily, and that winter may provide an opportunity to begin negotiations with Russia.

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[jhungary]

the Joint Chiefs chair. The four-star general said during an appearance at the Economic Club of New York that a victory by Ukraine may not be achieved militarily, and that winter may provide an opportunity to begin negotiations with Russia.

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He is right.

I said this over and over and over and over and over again. Even if Ukraine beat off the Russian completely in this war, that does not mean they won or have peace with Russian. Some time down the road, depends on how much Russia get help from other fringe country and China, they will try it again, reinvade again, and start another war again, people need to remember this is Part 2 of Ukrainian war, the first one started in 2014. Which mean Russia is not going to let it go even if they are soundly defeated.

The only thing this can be solve is either for Ukraine to join NATO, that's diplomatic effort, or somehow Ukraine convince Russia not to invade again, I don't know how, but that's another diplomatic effort.

 

[Han Patriot]

the Joint Chiefs chair. The four-star general said during an appearance at the Economic Club of New York that a victory by Ukraine may not be achieved militarily, and that winter may provide an opportunity to begin negotiations with Russia.

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Ehh, i thought Ukriane was gonna buldoze their way to Moscow? Super stronk right? Look at our cheerleader coming all out with her pom poms.

 

[S10]

My prediction for the next 3 months

- Russia will fall short of its objectives to fully control Donetsk, Zaporizhya and Kherson, but will maintain control where the red line is on the map. Both sides don't have enough to push for massive gains.

- Ukraine will formally cede those territories under Russian control. That way it clears any political obstacle to joining NATO/EU. Russia will not be able to militarily expand any further once Ukraine is protected by NATO.

 

[jhungary]

My prediction for the next 3 months

- Russia will fall short of its objectives to fully control Donetsk, Zaporizhya and Kherson, but will maintain control where the red line is on the map. Both sides don't have enough to push for massive gains.

- Ukraine will formally cede those territories under Russian control. That way it clears any political obstacle to joining NATO/EU. Russia will not be able to militarily expand any further once Ukraine is protected by NATO.

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They probably will lose the entire Kherson oblast in 3 months, and depends on whether or not Ukraine keep on pushing. They may got push back all the way back to original line in 2022.

They are already confirmed to breach the Kinburn Peninsular and forcing Russian troop on 2 sides, that's not a good thing if you are just retreat from Kherson.

It's widely believed Ukraine is preparing another big push in Russian held territories. Ukraine will not negotiate before that happen, and that happen most likely in Spring 2023.

 

[S10]

They probably will lose the entire Kherson oblast in 3 months, and depends on whether or not Ukraine keep on pushing. They may got push back all the way back to original line in 2022.

They are already confirmed to breach the Kinburn Peninsular and forcing Russian troop on 2 sides, that's not a good thing if you are just retreat from Kherson.

It's widely believed Ukraine is preparing another big push in Russian held territories. Ukraine will not negotiate before that happen, and that happen most likely in Spring 2023.

I don't see Ukraine being able to hold on to those beachheads. They face the same problem the Russians did in Kherson city, keeping the units supplied across a wide river. Russia has also mobilized its reserves, so they have fresh meat for the grinder. Those troops may not be able to conduct offensive operations, but they can be used to fill defensive lines.

 

[jhungary]

I don't see Ukraine being able to hold on to those beachheads. They face the same problem the Russians did in Kherson city, keeping the units supplied across a wide river. Russia has also mobilized its reserves, so they have fresh meat for the grinder. Those troops may not be able to conduct offensive operations, but they can be used to fill defensive lines.

Well, they did, apparently it happened days ago (3 days ago) immediately after Ukraine took Kherson.

They are squeezing the Russian from both side and there is rumour backed up by video on telegram that Ukraine breached Oleskhy and Nova Kakhovka, both video were not confirmed by both Russian and Ukrainian source.

The problem for Russian is, either way, whether or not those troop in Kinburn success or not, the Russian aim from pull troop in Kherson so they can be redeploy to the East, if this happened, that mean those troop aren't going to the East and instead they need to stay and fight in Kherson, on the other hand, Ukraine can redeploy bulk of their Kherson assault troop anywhere they want, now that they took Kherson.

They don't need to succeed, they only need to delay Russian long enough not being about to use those troop and reinforce the East, that give time the Eastern offensive to mount. Which is already underway.

 

[S10]

Well, they did, apparently it happened days ago (3 days ago) immediately after Ukraine took Kherson.

They are squeezing the Russian from both side and there is rumour backed up by video on telegram that Ukraine breached Oleskhy and Nova Kakhovka, both video were not confirmed by both Russian and Ukrainian source.

The problem for Russian is, either way, whether or not those troop in Kinburn success or not, the Russian aim from pull troop in Kherson so they can be redeploy to the East, if this happened, that mean those troop aren't going to the East and instead they need to stay and fight in Kherson, on the other hand, Ukraine can redeploy bulk of their Kherson assault troop anywhere they want, now that they took Kherson.

They don't need to succeed, they only need to delay Russian long enough not being about to use those troop and reinforce the East, that give time the Eastern offensive to mount. Which is already underway.

Small scale raid is possible, but large-scale river crossing operation is bound to be picked off by Russian artillery and air strikes. Ukraine doesn't have the offensive capability for this kind of operation at the moment. I'd take Ukrainian rumors with a bag of salt.

Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

This interactive map complements the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW daily produces with high-fidelity.

storymaps.arcgis.com

Russia can deploy its mobilized reserve and second-rate units in defensive positions in the east bank of Dniper river, while moving their VDV and guard units to Luhansk and Donetsk.

 

[gambit]

- Ukraine will formally cede those territories under Russian control. That way it clears any political obstacle to joining NATO/EU. Russia will not be able to militarily expand any further once Ukraine is protected by NATO.

If Ukraine concede any territory to Russia, there will be no NATO membership and possibly not even EU because both treaties have some measures of mutual military obligations. Concessions today maybe reneged tomorrow and EU/NATO cannot risk getting into a direct conflict against a nuclear weapons state -- Russia. The fear is that a future Ukrainian leader could drag the alliance into a needless war to 'recover' those concessions. NATO has enough headaches with Turkey and Greece.

 

[S10]

If Ukraine concede any territory to Russia, there will be no NATO membership and possibly not even EU because both treaties have some measures of mutual military obligations. Concessions today maybe reneged tomorrow and EU/NATO cannot risk getting into a direct conflict against a nuclear weapons state -- Russia. The fear is that a future Ukrainian leader could drag the alliance into a needless war to 'recover' those concessions. NATO has enough headaches with Turkey and Greece.

If both Ukraine and Russia agree on a new border, then de jure it would clear up any obstacle for NATO membership as territories are no longer disputed.

The key is it has to be solidified in a formal treaty and receive UN recognition. A simple armistice will not do.

 

[jhungary]

Small scale raid is possible, but large-scale river crossing operation is bound to be picked off by Russian artillery and air strikes. Ukraine doesn't have the offensive capability for this kind of operation at the moment. I'd take Ukrainian rumors with a bag of salt.

Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

This interactive map complements the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW daily produces with high-fidelity.

storymaps.arcgis.com

Russia can deploy its mobilized reserve and second-rate units in defensive positions in the east bank of Dniper river, while moving their VDV and guard units to Luhansk and Donetsk.

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First of all, this is confirmed, by both Ukrainian source AND RUSSIAN source. Ukraine took Heroiske, with photo and video evidence. And are reported by western source like Sky News quoting RUSI source, this is highly likely this is the case. I mean, you can choose not to believe it, that does not mean it didn't point to it was taken by Ukrainian

The Professor form RUSI talk about Kinburn at 2:43

On the other hand, what reserve?? They don't have reserve on that side of the river, that's the reason why they leave Kherson, if they have reserve stacked up, would they be holding on to Kherson instead of getting push back? You don't' leave a perfectly good defensive position just because you think you are going to get cut off, again that's the same situation Ukrainian face in May when they are facing Russian assault in Sieverodonetsk, they didn't pull out until around day 83.

On the other hand, those troop in Kherson WAS the reserve for Eastern front. Putin no doubt will want to have them redeployed in the East in order to gain more ground or dig in from Svatove to Kreminna and repel Ukrainian assault. As I said, Ukraine don't really need to win the war in Kinburn, what they need to do is to delay the Russian redeployment for as long as possible. That way, it give their troop in the North more time to assault Savtove line. They are almost completing the encirclment of Kreminna and about to take P66 Highway, that's why Russia is calling for yet another evacuation in Kreminna, Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk

Russian occupation regime plans to evacuate all civilians from three towns in Luhansk Oblast

The Russian occupation regime in Luhansk Oblast is planning to evacuate all civilians from the towns of Kreminna, Sievierodonetsk and Rubizhne. Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook, information as of 18:00 on 14 November Quote: "The occupiers are planning to evacuate...

news.yahoo.com

The last two time Russia did this is in Kharkiv and Kherson, both didn't end very well for the Russian. This is the third time.

 

[gambit]

If both Ukraine and Russia agree on a new border, then de jure it would clear up any obstacle for NATO membership as territories are no longer disputed.

The key is it has to be solidified in a formal treaty and receive UN recognition. A simple armistice will not do.

I agree. But that does not mean EU/NATO should. Also by de jure that would be Ukraine abutting a slightly larger Russia all over again, and if EU/NATO offers any kind of membership, we would be back to square one.

 

[8888888888888]

My prediction for the next 3 months

- Russia will fall short of its objectives to fully control Donetsk, Zaporizhya and Kherson, but will maintain control where the red line is on the map. Both sides don't have enough to push for massive gains.

- Ukraine will formally cede those territories under Russian control. That way it clears any political obstacle to joining NATO/EU. Russia will not be able to militarily expand any further once Ukraine is protected by NATO.

View attachment 896882

Russia just added those territory to Russia so they now have more troops to throw inside.