A roadmap for BD's trillion-dollar economy

[Black_cats]

A roadmap for BD's trillion-dollar economy​

MCCI | Published: January 13, 2023 20:10:44

---

Bangladesh is on the way to becoming a trillion-dollar economy by 2040 as revealed by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG). This speaks of Bangladesh's continued robust growth for over a decade, coupled with the government's pursuit of investment and employment generation. Being a growing market with a strategic geographic position, Bangladesh is sure to benefit from its growing middle-income group.

Currently, Bangladesh is a $416-billion economy. BCG predicts Bangladesh's middle and affluent class will reach a volume of 34 million people by 2025 from the 19 million of 2020, thus propelling the growth.


Such an economic growth as predicted will mean many roaring benefits for the country. We may expect the overall standard of living to go up, which will also mean improved development outcomes, like the rising Human Development Index (HDI). There would be more job creation that will drive unemployment levels down. From a fiscal standpoint, a trillion-dollar economy will ensure the government's coffers are filling up with tax revenues, leading to savings in unemployment benefits as more people are employed. As the country improves on infrastructure and business-friendly environment, one can expect Bangladesh to draw more investment from abroad. It would indeed be a sought-after scenario.

Undoubtedly, emerging into a trillion-dollar economy will be good for Bangladesh. To reach that stage and not derail off course will require proper planning and strategising. The country will have to manage on many fronts. For starters, there could not be any liquidity challenge. Sure, cash can propel the economy, so the government would have to ensure that liquidity never becomes an issue. Also, reaching the trillion-dollar mark could mean inflation. The inflationary pressure will have to be countered as growth will mean less if more people find the general price levels going out of hands.

Finally, it has happened many a time that a continued growth surge has led to benefits being confined to only a selected few. That would defeat the purpose of the trillion-dollar economy-everyone must be benefitted. The government will have to be wary of lopsided growths and do everything to counter this.
The pathway to a trillion-dollar economy will involve investing in the right capital and infrastructure. The government is already working towards lowering the cost of doing business and improving the ease of doing business in the country. These effects will not manifest overnight, but through continued actions, a few years of dedication can make a vast difference in how improved Bangladesh becomes in terms of business-friendly policies and laws and their implementations. Policies to foster innovation and productivity will have to be embraced as those will allow the major leaps in growth.

A shift towards a trillion-dollar economy will require us to move away from our overdependence on RMG as the major export earner and also promote other sectors. It would also need to promote our informal sector and ensure optimal formalisation, which will offer many inherent benefits to the workers.

Finally, the reliance on public and private sector collaborations will still hold value for many future projects. A trillion-dollar economy is not something that will land on us out of nowhere: it has to be achieved. Immense amount of work will be required to reach that point. In this age of due diligence, environmental awareness, intellectual property rights (IPR), and the SDGs, we have multiple areas to focus on.

Concentrating on one area should not mean losing touch with the big picture: Bangladesh will have to grow to a level from where positive effects trickle down on every member of the society. The government will work, and both workers and employers will contribute towards achieving the common goals. When properly planned and adequately implemented, a trillion-dollar economy can certainly be achieved. May the citizens work together towards the achievement of the goal and succeed in their pursuit.

The piece originally published as the editorial of Chamber News (January, 2023), a monthly flagship publication of Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dhaka (www.mccibd.org).

A roadmap for BD's trillion-dollar economy

Bangladesh is on the way to becoming a trillion-dollar economy by 2040 as revealed by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG). This speaks of Bangladesh's continued robust growth for over a decade, coupled with the government's pursuit of investment and employment generation. Being a growing market with

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

 

[That Guy]

2040 seems like a reasonable target. With the rate of growth that BD is experiencing, so long as the profits are being reinvested into BD's development and industry, it'll hit a trillion around 2040-45.

If there aren't any major issues BD could probably reach $1 trillion even quicker, way before Pakistan.

The issue becomes then, would BD be able to sustain its current growth until then? What about after? Would it run into similar situations that Indonesia ran in to, where geography became a limiting factor (in BD's case its small land mass and being practically surrounded by India)?

Every indicator I've seen shows that BD will outpace Pakistan to reach $1 trillion, but for some reason every single financial institution says that eventually Pakistan will skyrocket ahead of BD by a wide margin, with Goldman Sachs recently saying that Pakistan would reach top 10 by 2075 with BD nowhere in sight.

And it's not just GMS, it's PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) who predict that by 2050 Pakistan will be the 16th largest economy in the world and BD 23rd...

It's the oddest thing , and I cannot for the life of me figure out why they're so pessimistic about Bangladesh, and optimistic about Pakistan, even though BD is going through massive economic growth, while Pakistan is on the verge of default.

Literally the only thing I can think of are either they predict BD's growth will slow down due to some sort of inherent limiting factor, or that despite Pakistan's own incompetence, it's sheer size, location and importance to neighboring and world powers will make it an economic success.

 

[UKBengali]

BD could hit 1 trillion in today’s prices in the early 2030s.

 

[Black_cats]

2040 seems like a reasonable target. With the rate of growth that BD is experiencing, so long as the profits are being reinvested into BD's development and industry, it'll hit a trillion around 2040-45.

If there aren't any major issues BD could probably reach $1 trillion even quicker, way before Pakistan.

The issue becomes then, would BD be able to sustain its current growth until then? What about after? Would it run into similar situations that Indonesia ran in to, where geography became a limiting factor (in BD's case its small land mass and being practically surrounded by India)?

Every indicator I've seen shows that BD will outpace Pakistan to reach $1 trillion, but for some reason every single financial institution says that eventually Pakistan will skyrocket ahead of BD by a wide margin, with Goldman Sachs recently saying that Pakistan would reach top 10 by 2075 with BD nowhere in sight.

View attachment 911871

And it's not just GMS, it's PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) who predict that by 2050 Pakistan will be the 16th largest economy in the world and BD 23rd...

View attachment 911872

It's the oddest thing , and I cannot for the life of me figure out why they're so pessimistic about Bangladesh, and optimistic about Pakistan, even though BD is going through massive economic growth, while Pakistan is on the verge of default.

Literally the only thing I can think of are either they predict BD's growth will slow down due to some sort of inherent limiting factor, or that despite Pakistan's own incompetence, it's sheer size, location and importance to neighboring and world powers will make it an economic success.

That’s all related to population. Pakistan will have almost 1.7 times population by 2050 and not sure what will be the number by 2075. But per capita wise Bangladesh will remain well ahead of Pakistan.

 

[UKBengali]

That’s all related to population. Pakistan will have almost 1.7 times population by 2050 and not sure what will be the number by 2075. But per capita wise Bangladesh will remain well ahead of Pakistan.

Don't worry about that poster as his pride is not allowing him to see that BD is a totally different league to Pakistan.

Fun Fact - the average BD'shi would have THREE times higher living standards than a Pakistani in 15 years according to all forecasts published so far. It really is an insult to BD to compare its economy to Pakistan.

Pakistani leaders have never had any kind of plan to develop the country since independence and that is why as both BD and India grow their per capita GDP at 5%+ this fiscal, Pakistan will be at zero.

 

[That Guy]

Don't worry about that poster as his pride is not allowing him to see that BD is a totally different league to Pakistan.

Fun Fact - the average BD'shi would have THREE times higher living standards than a Pakistani in 15 years according to all forecasts published so far. It really is an insult to BD to compare its economy to Pakistan.

Pakistani leaders have never had any kind of plan to develop the country since independence and that is why as both BD and India grow their per capita GDP at 5%+ this fiscal, Pakistan will be at zero.

Did you not read my comment? What pride?

If anything, it's your own pride in your damn nationalism that has blinded you.

I said nothing that criticises BD, and in fact pointed out how BD is ahead of Pakistan, and should remain ahead due to its economic growth.

Piece of advise, if you wanna talk shit about someone, have the spine to tag them first before spouting nonsense like a coward.

That’s all related to population. Pakistan will have almost 1.7 times population by 2050 and not sure what will be the number by 2075. But per capita wise Bangladesh will remain well ahead of Pakistan.

See, I don't think it's population alone. Just having sheer numbers doesn't guarantee high growth rate. As it is I don't see Pakistan growing beyond 5% anytime soon, or even in the next 10-15 years.

Per capita, depending on the economy, I can totally see BD's living standards being much higher than Pakistan.

 

[Black_cats]

Bangladesh's economy to reach $1 trillion by 2040: Planning ministry

ECONOMY​

UNB
18 January, 2023, 07:35 pm
Last modified: 18 January, 2023, 07:40 pm

The size of Bangladesh's economy will be $1 trillion by 2040, if the current consecutive growth of over 6% continues while it will be achieved by 2030 if the growth goes over 8%, said an official document of the planning ministry.

The information has also been placed in the updated picture of the economy of Bangladesh presented by the ministry of planning in the meeting of the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNEC), on Tuesday.

The document stated that the average economic growth of Bangladesh has been 6.4% in the last six years. Even if this growth falls below 5%, the economy of Bangladesh will touch the milestone of trillion dollars by 2040.

But if economic growth increases to 8-9% and internal stability is maintained, it will reach trillion dollars by 2030.

The Canadian online publication Visual Capitalist on 29 December published the statistics of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) showing the size of Bangladesh's economy at $465 billion. Bangladesh was ranked 35th among major economies last year.

Bangladesh's economy to reach $1 trillion by 2040: Planning ministry

The size of Bangladesh's economy will be $1 trillion by 2040, if the current consecutive growth of over 6% continues while it will be achieved by 2030 if the growth goes over 8%, said an official document of the planning ministry. The information has also been placed in the updated picture of...

www.tbsnews.net

 

[fallstuff]

A roadmap for BD's trillion-dollar economy​

MCCI | Published: January 13, 2023 20:10:44

---

Bangladesh is on the way to becoming a trillion-dollar economy by 2040 as revealed by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG). This speaks of Bangladesh's continued robust growth for over a decade, coupled with the government's pursuit of investment and employment generation. Being a growing market with a strategic geographic position, Bangladesh is sure to benefit from its growing middle-income group.

Currently, Bangladesh is a $416-billion economy. BCG predicts Bangladesh's middle and affluent class will reach a volume of 34 million people by 2025 from the 19 million of 2020, thus propelling the growth.


Such an economic growth as predicted will mean many roaring benefits for the country. We may expect the overall standard of living to go up, which will also mean improved development outcomes, like the rising Human Development Index (HDI). There would be more job creation that will drive unemployment levels down. From a fiscal standpoint, a trillion-dollar economy will ensure the government's coffers are filling up with tax revenues, leading to savings in unemployment benefits as more people are employed. As the country improves on infrastructure and business-friendly environment, one can expect Bangladesh to draw more investment from abroad. It would indeed be a sought-after scenario.

Undoubtedly, emerging into a trillion-dollar economy will be good for Bangladesh. To reach that stage and not derail off course will require proper planning and strategising. The country will have to manage on many fronts. For starters, there could not be any liquidity challenge. Sure, cash can propel the economy, so the government would have to ensure that liquidity never becomes an issue. Also, reaching the trillion-dollar mark could mean inflation. The inflationary pressure will have to be countered as growth will mean less if more people find the general price levels going out of hands.

Finally, it has happened many a time that a continued growth surge has led to benefits being confined to only a selected few. That would defeat the purpose of the trillion-dollar economy-everyone must be benefitted. The government will have to be wary of lopsided growths and do everything to counter this.
The pathway to a trillion-dollar economy will involve investing in the right capital and infrastructure. The government is already working towards lowering the cost of doing business and improving the ease of doing business in the country. These effects will not manifest overnight, but through continued actions, a few years of dedication can make a vast difference in how improved Bangladesh becomes in terms of business-friendly policies and laws and their implementations. Policies to foster innovation and productivity will have to be embraced as those will allow the major leaps in growth.

A shift towards a trillion-dollar economy will require us to move away from our overdependence on RMG as the major export earner and also promote other sectors. It would also need to promote our informal sector and ensure optimal formalisation, which will offer many inherent benefits to the workers.

Finally, the reliance on public and private sector collaborations will still hold value for many future projects. A trillion-dollar economy is not something that will land on us out of nowhere: it has to be achieved. Immense amount of work will be required to reach that point. In this age of due diligence, environmental awareness, intellectual property rights (IPR), and the SDGs, we have multiple areas to focus on.

Concentrating on one area should not mean losing touch with the big picture: Bangladesh will have to grow to a level from where positive effects trickle down on every member of the society. The government will work, and both workers and employers will contribute towards achieving the common goals. When properly planned and adequately implemented, a trillion-dollar economy can certainly be achieved. May the citizens work together towards the achievement of the goal and succeed in their pursuit.

The piece originally published as the editorial of Chamber News (January, 2023), a monthly flagship publication of Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dhaka (www.mccibd.org).

A roadmap for BD's trillion-dollar economy

Bangladesh is on the way to becoming a trillion-dollar economy by 2040 as revealed by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG). This speaks of Bangladesh's continued robust growth for over a decade, coupled with the government's pursuit of investment and employment generation. Being a growing market with

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Reading the article is like talking to a palm reader, there are no specifics like numbers or dates.
You pay them money, they will throw you an article !

 

[Skull and Bones]

2040 seems like a reasonable target. With the rate of growth that BD is experiencing, so long as the profits are being reinvested into BD's development and industry, it'll hit a trillion around 2040-45.

If there aren't any major issues BD could probably reach $1 trillion even quicker, way before Pakistan.

The issue becomes then, would BD be able to sustain its current growth until then? What about after? Would it run into similar situations that Indonesia ran in to, where geography became a limiting factor (in BD's case its small land mass and being practically surrounded by India)?

Every indicator I've seen shows that BD will outpace Pakistan to reach $1 trillion, but for some reason every single financial institution says that eventually Pakistan will skyrocket ahead of BD by a wide margin, with Goldman Sachs recently saying that Pakistan would reach top 10 by 2075 with BD nowhere in sight.

View attachment 911871

And it's not just GMS, it's PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) who predict that by 2050 Pakistan will be the 16th largest economy in the world and BD 23rd...

View attachment 911872

It's the oddest thing , and I cannot for the life of me figure out why they're so pessimistic about Bangladesh, and optimistic about Pakistan, even though BD is going through massive economic growth, while Pakistan is on the verge of default.

Literally the only thing I can think of are either they predict BD's growth will slow down due to some sort of inherent limiting factor, or that despite Pakistan's own incompetence, it's sheer size, location and importance to neighboring and world powers will make it an economic success.

Does these institutes include political instability, climate crisis, international relations in mind? It is not possible to have a model which integrates the impact of macro/micro economic policies, and integrate them over a greater timeframe for say 20-30 years.

All they do is take the current trend of GDP growth, and do a linear approximation over a longer period of time. Just look at the economic projection of Russia, Brazil, South Africa back in early 2000s, and see how miserably they failed to predict 2020s.

 

[UKBengali]

Did you not read my comment? What pride?

If anything, it's your own pride in your damn nationalism that has blinded you.

I said nothing that criticises BD, and in fact pointed out how BD is ahead of Pakistan, and should remain ahead due to its economic growth.

Piece of advise, if you wanna talk shit about someone, have the spine to tag them first before spouting nonsense like a coward.

I gathered that you would be reading through the posts and so thought it was pointless to tag you.

You need to be honest and you are at least sub-conciously trying to make a comparison between BD and Pakistan - there never fundamentally was as BD is a modern nation state while Pakistan is still stuck centuries in the past in its mindset. A few pockets of modernity and progressive thinkers does not make a modern nation state.

There is nothing unusual about what is happening in BD as before the British arrived on the sub-continent it was maybe the richest and one of the most technologically advanced regions on the planet. India would do well to keep within 1-2% lag at BD's growth rates over the coming decades.

 

[That Guy]

I gathered that you would be reading through the posts and so thought it was pointless to tag you.

You need to be honest and you are at least sub-conciously trying to make a comparison between BD and Pakistan - there never fundamentally was as BD is a modern nation state while Pakistan is still stuck centuries in the past in its mindset. A few pockets of modernity and progressive thinkers does not make a modern nation state.

There is nothing unusual about what is happening in BD as before the British arrived on the sub-continent it was maybe the richest and one of the most technologically advanced regions on the planet. India would do well to keep within 1-2% lag at BD's growth rates over the coming decades.

You really don't know how to read, do you?

Also, why is it ridiculous to compare two nations within South Asia? Especially when they used to be a singular country?

See, the problem with nationalists like you is that you're so blinded by your own egotistical nature that you think you're so far beyond any one of your peers that you cannot be compared to them.

Unlucky for you, no one with critical thinking skills actually thinks like that.

Oh, and If you think BD is a modern nation state, you are sorely mistaken.

It's well on its way to becoming one, and it will also become the first developed nation in South Asia as well, of that I have no doubt in my mind, but it's not there yet.

 

[That Guy]

Does these institutes include political instability, climate crisis, international relations in mind? It is not possible to have a model which integrates the impact of macro/micro economic policies, and integrate them over a greater timeframe for say 20-30 years.

All they do is take the current trend of GDP growth, and do a linear approximation over a longer period of time. Just look at the economic projection of Russia, Brazil, South Africa back in early 2000s, and see how miserably they failed to predict 2020s.

Normally I would agree because that is exactly what they do, but the GMS prediction came out during massive political instability and economic downturn within Pakistan, where even GMS said Pakistan's economic growth would be next to nonexistent for the foreseeable future. This means they HAD to have seen the numbers and actual growth before running their models and making their predictions.

So, when they say Pakistan's economy will be the 6th largest in the world by 2075, and worth $12 trillion in today's dollars, it really gives me pause.

What is it that they see that I as a pessimistic Pakistani who's given up do not?

 

[Black_cats]

When will Bangladesh’s economy reach the $1tn milestone?​

The country is moving ahead to become a strong economy in the next decade, with its GDP reaching the $465-billion mark in 2022

Representational image Bigstock
Tribune Report
January 18, 2023 11:06 AM

In the post-Covid era, while many developed countries are weighed down by the global economic crisis triggered by the Ukraine war, Bangladesh has maintained an average growth of 6.4% despite facing challenges.

Thanks to different austerity measures and effective policies to overcome the hurdles, Bangladesh is regarded as one of the fastest-growing economies in the world for more than a decade.

The country is moving ahead to become a strong economy in the next decade, with its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reaching the $465-billion mark in 2022.

Bangladesh was the second largest economy in South Asia after India and ranked 35th among the largest economies of the world, according to the latest report by the Canadian firm Visual Capitalist based on the work of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Meanwhile, the London-based think tank Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicts that Bangladesh is likely to become the 20th largest economy in the world out of 191 countries by the year 2037.

According to CEBR, Bangladesh is currently the second largest economy in the region and will continue to maintain the pace till 2037 with a GDP size of $1,628 billion at current prices.

Under these circumstances, the Planning Ministry has predicted that the size of Bangladesh's economy will be $1 trillion by 2040 if the growth falls below 5%.

On the other hand, if economic growth increases to 8-9% and internal stability is maintained, it will reach $1 trillion by 2030.

The projection on Bangladesh's economy was presented by the Planning Ministry at the meeting of the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (Ecnec), chaired by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, on Tuesday.

According to the report, although foreign exchange reserves are currently under pressure, Bangladesh is gradually managing the situation. Exports in the month of December increased by 9.33% compared to the previous year.

Moreover, remittance inflow also increased by 6.55% compared to the previous month. The flow is expected to increase further due to the government's incentive measures and strategies, and will ease the pressure on reserves.

Currently, the amount of foreign exchange reserves stands at $32.5 billion, and the government hopes that it will reach $36 billion by June.

Reserves to go beyond $36bn by June

The Bangladesh Bank says that foreign exchange reserves will increase by at least $4 billion in the next five and a half months

www.dhakatribune.com

 

[That Guy]

Why don't we come back in 15 years time and see where BD and Pakistan are?

I am inclined to go with all the forecasters who say that BD will be a 2nd world state while Pakistan is a 3rd world one still.

Reality is going to hit people like you like a ton of bricks in your old age.


Unlike a lot of self-proclaimed "experts" here I tend to get all my predictions about things like economic trajectory pretty much spot on. I have been saying for 10 years at least that BD would end up as the most successful economy in S Asia and here it is with a GDP per capita PPP on par with India, after having been at 70% level 15 years ago. India will be surpassed within 2-3 years and then be left trailing after that.

What things have you got remotely right? Please don't be one of those people who thought CPEC would revolutionise the Pakistan economy when people like me were saying without fundamental change in Pakistani culture and society it would make no difference.

I don't blame you as it is hard to imagine and come to terms with being way behind BD and India but I cannot see how that is not going to happen within just 10-15 years.

LEARN TO READ!

You are completely and utterly blinded by your own arrogance.

If you want me to remove the negative rating, read my comments and address them point by point, instead of foolishly just regurgitating your own bullshit.

 

[UKBengali]

LEARN TO READ!

You are completely and utterly blinded by your own arrogance.

If you want me to remove the negative rating, read my comments and address them point by point, instead of foolishly just regurgitating your own bullshit.

Dude, what's with the negative rating?

What forum rule have I broken?

I suggest for your own sake you apologise and retract it as otherwise this is going to make you look foolish like I did with another "Think Tank Analyst" years ago who had to eat humble pie.