A rising Bangladesh starts to exert its regional power.

[Avicenna]

An interesting article by an Australian think tank.

Thoughts?

A rising Bangladesh starts to exert its regional power | Lowy Institute

Dhaka is increasingly confident in an emerging role. The rest of the world would benefit to pay close attention.

www.lowyinstitute.org

A rising Bangladesh
starts to exert
its regional power

DAVID BREWSTER

Dhaka is increasingly confident in an emerging role. The
rest of the world would benefit to pay close attention.

Empty oil drums at a warehouse in Narayanganj on 19 May (Ahmed Salahuddin/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Published 10 Jun 2021 10:00  

The recent announcement that Bangladesh would provide US$200 million in aid to Sri Lanka is an important turning point as that country moves from being an impoverished supplicant towards an increasingly influential regional state. It is an outcome of years of high economic growth and points to Dhaka’s potential to become an important Indo Pacific middle player.
When it gained independence from Pakistan in 1971, Bangladesh was one of the poorest countries in the world with few apparent prospects – former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger apocryphally called it a “basket case”.

Today it is a confident country of 160 million people with a booming, export oriented economy, which has grown at an annual average of about 6% for two decades. Economic growth slowed to 5.2% in 2020 due to Covid, and is forecast by the ADB to bounce back to 6.8% in 2021 and 7.2% in 2022. GDP per capita now stands at $2,227, higher than India’s ($1,947) and much higher than its former masters, Pakistan ($1,543).

Dhaka’s recent aid to neighbouring Sri Lanka was a first in Bangladesh extending financial assistance to any other country.
Just as importantly, Bangladesh scores well against India and other South Asian countries in many social indicators
including health, life expectancy, birth-rates and employment of women.

The sustainability of Bangladesh’s growth story is not without its sceptics who question official growth figures or point to its heavy reliance on garment exports, which could make it financially vulnerable.

There are also concerns over its future political stability. Since 2008, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has presided over a relatively stable civilian administration. She is publicly popular and has largely vanquished or arrested her political opponents. But she has no obvious succession plans. With the Bangladesh opposition effectively neutered, her departure from the political scene might leave the military in charge (probably, reluctantly if its last experience in power in 2008 is any measure).

A little discussed consequence of Bangladesh’s economic success is how it will affect its role in the region. A range of international actors are jostling over Dhaka’s attentions. But Bangladesh is also exerting its influence in the neighbourhood, reflecting greater material resources and growing national confidence.

The Hasina government has kept Bangladesh politically close to India, a pragmatic reflection of Bangladesh’s geographic realities, despite some long-running resentments. Japan is a major investor in infrastructure and manufacturing, including as part of disinvestment from China. And the United States is focusing on building defence ties.

This attention prompted an intervention last month from the Chinese Ambassador to Dhaka, Li Jimming, who warned Bangladesh against joining the US, Japan, India and Australia in the Quadraliateral Security Dialogue, stating that it would “substantially damage” bilateral relations. Bangladesh Foreign Minister A.K. Abdul Momen, called the Chinese ambassador’s statements “aggressive” and “very regrettable”.

But there is no indication that Bangladesh would ever join the “Quad”. Nor is there reason to believe that a country that fought its way to bloody independence would allow itself to be bullied, even by an important partner such as Beijing.

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina addressing the UN General Assembly in 2015 (UN Photo)

As bigger powers show it greater attention, Bangladesh is also building its political and military influence in the Bay of Bengal region and the wider Indian Ocean, including through regional groupings such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association, which is will chair from later this year.

Dhaka’s recent aid to neighbouring Sri Lanka was a first in Bangladesh extending financial assistance to any other country. The $200 million currency swap reflects the healthy state of Bangladesh treasury which now boasts foreign reserves of $45 billion. It also reflects the parlous state of Sri Lanka’s post-Covid economy, which carries massive foreign debt that may not be able to service.

Bangladesh reportedly stepped in to partially meet unfulfilled requests that the Sri Lankan government made to India in May 2020. The political motivations behind this assistance are not entirely clear. Perhaps this provision of short-term liquidity was intended to buy favour with the Sri Lankan government which is otherwise inclined to support its fellow Buddhists in the Myanmar military regime.

Relations with Myanmar have been tense since the Myanmar army ethnically cleansed some 900,000 Rohingya people, most of whom now sit in camps in southern Bangladesh. Bangladeshi resentments towards Myanmar would likely significantly worsen if it sought to expel the remaining Rohingyas. The slide of Myanmar into civil conflict since the military coup in February 2021 presages difficult times ahead.

Bangladesh’s economic success is also allowing the Bangladesh military to build its capabilities. It is cashed up and making some major acquisitions, moving beyond its traditional suppliers of China and Russia. This has included Turkey, which has sold more than $1 billion in armoured vehicles and rocket launchers. The Bangladesh Air Force is also considering the purchase of US F-16s or Eurofighter Typhoons which would give it an advantage over Myanmar. It is not yet clear what new capabilities may be acquired in the maritime realm in addition to its purchase of Chinese submarines.

What does this mean for Australia? Australia was one of the first countries to recognise an independent Bangladesh after the independence war. But while Australia has provided considerable aid, including substantial assistance for the Rohingyas, it did little to build a comprehensive relationship. More than 20 years passed between visits by an Australia foreign minister to Bangladesh from 1998 to 2019.

Foreign Minister Marise Payne is now known to be keen on building ties, and there are signs that the two sides want to move the relationship beyond aid. An agreement to facilitate trade and investment has been finalised and is close to signing, which could help open opportunities for Australian agriculture, resource and energy exports to a booming Bangladesh. There is also potential for cooperation in defence and security reflecting many shared security interests in the northeast Indian Ocean.

Australia could do well in moving beyond traditional regional partners. Greater focus needs to be given to building ties with emerging middle powers such as Bangladesh to complement relationships with the big powers.

This article is part of a two-year project being undertaken by the ANU National Security College on the Indian Ocean, with the support of the Australian Department of Defence.

 

[UKBengali]

I am sure that this article has already been posted before.

Anyway the loan to Sri Lanka is symbolic of the newly self-confident BD that is actually able to now extend out loans, rather than always being a recipient.

One of the most important challenges for BD this decade is to raise the tax to gdp ratio from the current 9% to a much higher level. By being able to raise enough revenue by itself BD government can free itself from foreign loans and accelerate the overall development of the economy.

The 2nd one is to diversify so that garments are a much lesser important part of the export basket. We are seeing early signs of this from the electronics and pharma industries but this pace must be accelerated.

If BD is successful in the above two points then it will indeed become a regional economic power by 2030.

 

[Avicenna]

I am sure that this article has already been posted before.

Anyway the loan to Sri Lanka is symbolic of the newly self-confident BD that is actually able to now extend out loans, rather than always being a recipient.

One of the most important challenges for BD this decade is to raise the tax to gap ratio from the current 9% to a much higher level. By being able to raise enough revenue by itself BD government can free itself from foreign loans and accelerate the overall development of the economy.

The 2nd one is to diversify so that garments are a much lesser important part of the export basket. We are seeing early signs of this from the electronics and pharma industries but this pace must be accelerated.

If BD is successful in the above two points then it will indeed become a regional economic power by 2030.

I think what's among the most important takeaways from this article and the sources that it is derived from are that Australia (i.e. the West) has some sort of interest in Bangladesh. (For their own purposes of course)

With that comes good and bad.

But ultimately is illustrative of the fact that Bangladesh is making real progress.

 

[UKBengali]

I think what's among the most important takeaways from this article and the sources that it is derived from are that Australia (i.e. the West) has some sort of interest in Bangladesh. (For their own purposes of course)

With that comes good and bad.

But ultimately is illustrative of the fact that Bangladesh is making real progress.

Well the USA no longer sees BD from an Indian lens only.

India’s massive cock-up in not supplying the vaccine doses to BD forced the US to step in with its own supply.

US is starting to see India for what it is - an incompetent and chaotic country.

BD is now being seen as an entity in its own right and that should accelerate both its economic and military development

 

[Avicenna]

Well the USA no longer sees BD from an Indian lens only.

India’s massive cock-up in not supplying the vaccine doses to BD forced the US to step in with its own supply.

US is starting to see India for what it is - an incompetent and chaotic country.

BD is now being seen as an entity in its own right and that should accelerate both its economic and military development

Agreed.

This is very much a good thing.

It's very interesting how Australia has replaced India as the US's regional agent.

 

[UKBengali]

Agreed.

This is very much a good thing.

It's very interesting how Australia has replaced India as the US's regional agent.

Being replaced by a country 1/30th in population should be a massive wake up call.

Sure none of this will sink into Modi and so more of the same can be expected.

BD just needs to stick on its trajectory and balance the Chinese and the West in order to realise its economic and military goals.

India has actually become less of a threat since Modi took over as he is upfront and incompetent. Far better than Mahmohan Singh who did not offend and was actually competent.

 

[Bilal9]

Great Article though I may have seen it before - anyways this is a great segway to launch a discussion on regional geopolitical dynamics.

Australia could do well in moving beyond traditional regional partners. Greater focus needs to be given to building ties with emerging middle powers such as Bangladesh to complement relationships with the big powers.

The fact that Australia and US are thinking to do more with us is a good thing. Courtship is always a good thing, whether you commit or not. Increases your value and attracts investments and trade, from both sides of geopolitics.

India is an interesting case, aside from their usual (currently magnified) incompetence. Indian netizens in social media often compare their land as better than Australia (I've seen laughable comparisons on infra especially rail).

Indians may already be wearing out their welcome with Australians as far as strategic partnerships, military or otherwise, as more incompetence comes to light. India may be able to deploy their ships in South China Sea, but that won't attract Australian investments to their shores, other than to serve India's own market.

FDI is what India needs to increase economic importance, not useless military expenditures and Pappadum puffery to have electronic coolies vote Modi back in again. I don't see India's down-in-the-dumps sad-sack poor-cousin-as-a-liability status in the US Camp changing anytime soon, because their priorities are wrong to start out with and they are doing nothing to improve their economy.

Bangladesh should (as always) concentrate on the stark fundamentals, attract investments by investing in building out export-related infra (not lose current momentum), try to increase export volume of goods and services on all fronts, find newer avenues to add values to exports and keep people gainfully employed.

 

[Titanium100]

BD is younger than most countries hence why it was behind in the 90s it just turned 50 this year but it has always had most potential in the subcontinent. The bengalis are the most capable ppl in the subcontinent

 

[Asian.Century]

The highlighted shows how Pakistan Army, Generals with Martial Law ruled the Country, still now and how Bangladesh bounced back from its former masters Pakistan:

When it gained independence from Pakistan in 1971, Bangladesh was one of the poorest countries in the world with few apparent prospects – former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger apocryphally called it a “basket case”.

Today it is a confident country of 160 million people with a booming, export oriented economy, which has grown at an annual average of about 6% for two decades. Economic growth slowed to 5.2% in 2020 due to Covid, and is forecast by the ADB to bounce back to 6.8% in 2021 and 7.2% in 2022.

GDP per capita now stands at $2,227, higher than India’s ($1,947) and much higher than its former masters, Pakistan ($1,543).

 

[SpaceMan18]

BD is younger than most countries hence why it was behind in the 90s it just turned 50 this year but it has always had most potential in the subcontinent. The bengalis are the most capable ppl in the subcontinent

Capable yes , the capable ones leave the nation while the not so capable ones end up ruining the nation for their own benefits.

I envision a clean Bangladesh that is technologically developed and innovative on all fronts.

While these fools that ruin BD for their own benefits envision nothing but Indian money and living comfortably in the West while BD suffers.

 

[Avicenna]

Capable yes , the capable ones leave the nation while the not so capable ones end up ruining the nation for their own benefits.

I envision a clean Bangladesh that is technologically developed and innovative on all fronts.

While these fools that ruin BD for their own benefits envision nothing but Indian money and living comfortably in the West while BD suffers.

Yea, its interesting the immigration pattern and achievements of Bangladeshis who have come to the US from the late 20th century to the present.

The key is the hard work of the parents to establish themselves in a foreign land and the push for education of the kids.
(GIRLS and boys.)

The next generation are positioned to do some great things InshAllah.

But, the great things are in the US.

Bangladesh, like many other countries suffer from that intellectual drain.

As it pertains to this article though, Bangladesh should leverage this new found attention by the West to
maximize its military capability.

By this I mean instilling Western culture and ethic in the military as well as learn and employ Western thought process and tactics.

In other words, regress back to its British influenced heritage rather than the mediocrity of the present.

 

[Battlion25]

Yea, its interesting the immigration pattern and achievements of Bangladeshis who have come to the US from the late 20th century to the present.

The key is the hard work of the parents to establish themselves in a foreign land and the push for education of the kids.
(GIRLS and boys.)

The next generation are positioned to do some great things InshAllah.

But, the great things are in the US.

Bangladesh, like many other countries suffer from that intellectual drain.

As it pertains to this article though, Bangladesh should leverage this new found attention by the West to
maximize its military capability.

By this I mean instilling Western culture and ethic in the military as well as learn and employ Western thought process and tactics.

In other words, regress back to its British influenced heritage rather than the mediocrity of the present.

I think even if some leave it still doesn't change much because the bangali populace are very much education focussed and has become part of their culture so the output of capable people is higher than anywhere else in the subcontintent including pakistan

 

[SpaceMan18]

Yea, its interesting the immigration pattern and achievements of Bangladeshis who have come to the US from the late 20th century to the present.

The key is the hard work of the parents to establish themselves in a foreign land and the push for education of the kids.
(GIRLS and boys.)

The next generation are positioned to do some great things InshAllah.

But, the great things are in the US.

Bangladesh, like many other countries suffer from that intellectual drain.

As it pertains to this article though, Bangladesh should leverage this new found attention by the West to
maximize its military capability.

By this I mean instilling Western culture and ethic in the military as well as learn and employ Western thought process and tactics.

In other words, regress back to its British influenced heritage rather than the mediocrity of the present.

I agree man , BD has no time to play around cause if it doesn't get developed in 25ish to 30 years then it's just gonna be another failed state.


The sad fact is , there isn't ONE developed nation that is brown which plays into the hands of racists that scream " BROWN PEOPLE CAN'T MAKE CIVILIZATIONS "

Instead of proving these racist wrong , our brown leaders prove them right like a bunch of idiots

I think even if some leave it still doesn't change much because the bangali populace are very much education focussed and has become part of their culture so the output of capable people is higher than anywhere else in the subcontintent including pakistan

Ehhhhh not quite , BD is developing but at a very slow slow pace and not developing correctly

 

[Jobless Jack]

The first acid test of the BD foreign policy coming.

If the taliban capture kabul and replace the current kabuli regime. How BD responds to this ? .

Will BD join the west and quad in expelling taliban diplomats from their country and cutting of all ties with Afghanistan ? ( taliban diplomats because if taliban become official govt of Afghanistan, then the afghan embassy in dhaka, essentially is the embassy of the taliban.) west and europe middleast and quad will want BD to cut off all ties with afghanistan. Not even a neutral footing will be suffiecient to please the west and their allies. The west and their allies will demand that bd cut off all ties with taliban and shut off the embassy in dhaka.

Or will BD join china and russia and maintain and atleast a neutral stance toward afghanistan? This will please china. Anything less, the chinese will not be happy as that will signal growing closeness with quad .

 

[UKBengali]

BD is younger than most countries hence why it was behind in the 90s it just turned 50 this year but it has always had most potential in the subcontinent. The bengalis are the most capable ppl in the subcontinent

Yep but a critical reason is that BD is homogenous and it does not have to expand too much energy holding itself together unlike India and to a lesser extent Pakistan.

Despite what some BD posters here think BD is doing as well as can be expected for the time it has had independence and the region it has found itself in. It can and should improve a little quicker in its military capabilities and tweak a few areas of its economy.

If all major economic organisations predict a good run for the BD economy till 2035, then it is arrogance to think anyone here knows better. These orgs. have factored all variables into their forecasts and there is a greater chance of them being right at the end of the day.

Mainly more of the same with the BAL for the rest of the decade and the few areas that need improvement will probably slowly happen or at least a start made. Expecting everything to be fixed immediately is naive and lacking knowledge in how things work in the real world.