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http://www.dhakatribune.com/opinion/2017/09/29/new-reality-bangladesh/
A new reality for Bangladesh
It’s time for a geo-strategic reassessment
The world is undergoing a rapid change in the recent decades with lesser predictability about unfolding events, and so are the relations and equations among states within regions, continents, and beyond.
Bangladesh faced this grim reality recently when its rogue neighbour Myanmar systematically persecuted and expelled close to half a million of the latter’s Rohingya citizens — who are ethnically close to the Bengalis and faith-wise similar to Bengali Muslims — into Bangladesh in just few weeks time.
Apparently, many think Bangladesh has good relations with its big neighbour India, especially as the Awami League is in power.
Unlike the other major political party of Bangladesh, BNP, the AL government traditionally has maintained a pragmatic good relation with Indians and, on the other hand, lowered relations with Pakistan with whom Bangladesh still has few sensitive outstanding issues.
Bangladesh, over many decades and through successive governments of all hue, developed a good relation with the other Asian giant, China, of whom India is a competitor in terms of influence in large parts of Asia and the Indian Ocean.
An implicit understanding of Bangladeshi strategists have been that Bangladesh shouldn’t put all its eggs in the same basket ie, India, especially when this big South Asian country surrounds Bangladesh from three sides, with a significant outstanding issue like water sharing of numerous common rivers coming down from upstream India — life-lines for Bangladesh.
Bangladesh developed a long-standing trade, investment, and defense purchase relations with China.
Of late, Bangladesh might have also thought, with the imploding Islamic solidarity and disinterested Trump administration, China would render some strategic relief for Bangladesh. Especially as the anti-Muslim right-wing BJP rose to the helm of India, often blowing things out of proportion in hostile ways.
However, both Bangladeshi and Indian governments have maintained an apparent good relation, and Bangladesh has been prudent with regards to Indian sensitivities about its northeastern rebels using Bangladeshi territory for hideouts and supply routes, and China’s desire to develop a deep sea port as part of its so called “string of pearls” strategy.
It seemed Bangladesh was able to maintain a good balance between these two of its powerful friends.
Friends or foes?
When the episode of the Rohingya crisis started, Bangladesh was utterly surprised to find both China and India supporting Myanmar strongly — rather than being neutral — when Myanmar hugely over-reacted to a moderate Rohingya rebel attack on its security forces.
Later, both the country rendered a softer support for Bangladesh’s stand on returning the Rohingya refugees to their native place, Rakhine state of Myanmar.
Despite the surprise, China’s prioritisation of Myanmar over Bangladesh can be understood because of their much stronger strategic and cultural intimacy. The real shock was India’s support to Myanmar ahead of Bangladesh, its regional neighbour with closer geographic, ethnic, cultural, and trade ties.
All these developments have triggered a strategic reassessment in Bangladesh in terms of its national security and diplomatic standings.
Most Muslim countries are still supporting Bangladesh’s just stand but their influencing capabilities are limited over reclusive military-dominated Myanmar.
Turkey, the new would-be leader of the Islamic world, demonstrated significant enthusiasm in supporting Bangladesh. The West and the UN generally stood by Bangladesh’s side, but Western countries may not invest too much of their effort in this crisis.
With regards to any future probable conflict with Myanmar, Bangladesh needs other friends who can help diplomatically, economically, and even militarily
However, Western support is still important, especially the one of the US, as it is still the biggest military power in the Indian Ocean.
Diplomatic and refugee aid support of other developed countries like the UK, Canada, Japan, Australia, and the EU are quite important. Like China, Russia has also sided with Myanmar, by and large.
Despite the strategic and diplomatic shock that Bangladesh received from India and China, it will be immature to overreact to that.
When the time comes
Both India and China remain important to Bangladesh economically and for other bilateral issues.
However, with regards to any future probable conflict with Myanmar, Bangladesh needs other friends who can help diplomatically, economically, and even militarily.
The relatively stronger nations of the Islamic world with whom Bangladesh doesn’t have any historical baggage are the right ones. Turkey, Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt appear to fit the bill.
Bangladesh needs to reduce its huge dependency on Chinese weapons and military equipment as it is unsure now what will happen to required emergency supplies if there is an escalation with Myanmar.
Turkey has a well-advanced military industry which it developed with the help of the US. Its military hardware is more affordable than the Western ones, if not as much as of the Chinese.
Turkey’s soft Islamist government had some issues with Bangladesh when the latter tried the Islamist war criminals of 1971. But that episode is almost over and it’s time for both the countries to bury the hatchet.
Russia doesn’t have any significant stake in Myanmar, and it can be persuaded if there is some potential for it to supply arms and armaments to Bangladesh.
Ukraine, Belarus etc are some other affordable options. Bangladesh is about four times bigger than Myanmar in terms of nominal GDP and its purchase power has substantially increased with a healthy foreign currency reserve.
Perhaps it’s also about time Bangladesh increases its defense spending, which is generally just moderate.
The key question though is: Can Bangladeshi policy-makers live up to these geo-strategic and national security challenges and expectations?
Sarwar Jahan Chowdhury is a freelance commentator on politics, society, and international relations. He currently works at BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD).
A new reality for Bangladesh
- Sarwar Jahan Chowdhury
- Published at 05:29 PM September 29, 2017
- Last updated at 09:58 AM September 30, 2017
It’s time for a geo-strategic reassessment
The world is undergoing a rapid change in the recent decades with lesser predictability about unfolding events, and so are the relations and equations among states within regions, continents, and beyond.
Bangladesh faced this grim reality recently when its rogue neighbour Myanmar systematically persecuted and expelled close to half a million of the latter’s Rohingya citizens — who are ethnically close to the Bengalis and faith-wise similar to Bengali Muslims — into Bangladesh in just few weeks time.
Apparently, many think Bangladesh has good relations with its big neighbour India, especially as the Awami League is in power.
Unlike the other major political party of Bangladesh, BNP, the AL government traditionally has maintained a pragmatic good relation with Indians and, on the other hand, lowered relations with Pakistan with whom Bangladesh still has few sensitive outstanding issues.
Bangladesh, over many decades and through successive governments of all hue, developed a good relation with the other Asian giant, China, of whom India is a competitor in terms of influence in large parts of Asia and the Indian Ocean.
An implicit understanding of Bangladeshi strategists have been that Bangladesh shouldn’t put all its eggs in the same basket ie, India, especially when this big South Asian country surrounds Bangladesh from three sides, with a significant outstanding issue like water sharing of numerous common rivers coming down from upstream India — life-lines for Bangladesh.
Bangladesh developed a long-standing trade, investment, and defense purchase relations with China.
Of late, Bangladesh might have also thought, with the imploding Islamic solidarity and disinterested Trump administration, China would render some strategic relief for Bangladesh. Especially as the anti-Muslim right-wing BJP rose to the helm of India, often blowing things out of proportion in hostile ways.
However, both Bangladeshi and Indian governments have maintained an apparent good relation, and Bangladesh has been prudent with regards to Indian sensitivities about its northeastern rebels using Bangladeshi territory for hideouts and supply routes, and China’s desire to develop a deep sea port as part of its so called “string of pearls” strategy.
It seemed Bangladesh was able to maintain a good balance between these two of its powerful friends.
Friends or foes?
When the episode of the Rohingya crisis started, Bangladesh was utterly surprised to find both China and India supporting Myanmar strongly — rather than being neutral — when Myanmar hugely over-reacted to a moderate Rohingya rebel attack on its security forces.
Later, both the country rendered a softer support for Bangladesh’s stand on returning the Rohingya refugees to their native place, Rakhine state of Myanmar.
Despite the surprise, China’s prioritisation of Myanmar over Bangladesh can be understood because of their much stronger strategic and cultural intimacy. The real shock was India’s support to Myanmar ahead of Bangladesh, its regional neighbour with closer geographic, ethnic, cultural, and trade ties.
All these developments have triggered a strategic reassessment in Bangladesh in terms of its national security and diplomatic standings.
Most Muslim countries are still supporting Bangladesh’s just stand but their influencing capabilities are limited over reclusive military-dominated Myanmar.
Turkey, the new would-be leader of the Islamic world, demonstrated significant enthusiasm in supporting Bangladesh. The West and the UN generally stood by Bangladesh’s side, but Western countries may not invest too much of their effort in this crisis.
With regards to any future probable conflict with Myanmar, Bangladesh needs other friends who can help diplomatically, economically, and even militarily
However, Western support is still important, especially the one of the US, as it is still the biggest military power in the Indian Ocean.
Diplomatic and refugee aid support of other developed countries like the UK, Canada, Japan, Australia, and the EU are quite important. Like China, Russia has also sided with Myanmar, by and large.
Despite the strategic and diplomatic shock that Bangladesh received from India and China, it will be immature to overreact to that.
When the time comes
Both India and China remain important to Bangladesh economically and for other bilateral issues.
However, with regards to any future probable conflict with Myanmar, Bangladesh needs other friends who can help diplomatically, economically, and even militarily.
The relatively stronger nations of the Islamic world with whom Bangladesh doesn’t have any historical baggage are the right ones. Turkey, Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt appear to fit the bill.
Bangladesh needs to reduce its huge dependency on Chinese weapons and military equipment as it is unsure now what will happen to required emergency supplies if there is an escalation with Myanmar.
Turkey has a well-advanced military industry which it developed with the help of the US. Its military hardware is more affordable than the Western ones, if not as much as of the Chinese.
Turkey’s soft Islamist government had some issues with Bangladesh when the latter tried the Islamist war criminals of 1971. But that episode is almost over and it’s time for both the countries to bury the hatchet.
Russia doesn’t have any significant stake in Myanmar, and it can be persuaded if there is some potential for it to supply arms and armaments to Bangladesh.
Ukraine, Belarus etc are some other affordable options. Bangladesh is about four times bigger than Myanmar in terms of nominal GDP and its purchase power has substantially increased with a healthy foreign currency reserve.
Perhaps it’s also about time Bangladesh increases its defense spending, which is generally just moderate.
The key question though is: Can Bangladeshi policy-makers live up to these geo-strategic and national security challenges and expectations?
Sarwar Jahan Chowdhury is a freelance commentator on politics, society, and international relations. He currently works at BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD).
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