A friendly neighborhood best guarantee for South Korea's national security

[TaiShang]

Commentary: A friendly neighborhood best guarantee for South Korea's national security

August 03, 2016

BEIJING, Aug. 3 (Xinhua) -- What South Korea truly needs to ensure its national security is a friendly neighborhood rather than a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) system at the cost of the interests of surrounding countries such as China.

The joint decision of Seoul and Washington in early July to deploy the system on the Korean Peninsula breaks the strategic balance in Northeast Asia, threatening if not dooming regional peace and stability with a possible onset of a new Cold War.

With the system's X-band radar commanding surveillance of an area that extends over 1,900 km from the peninsula, the United States can spy on almost half of China's territory and the southern part of Russia's Far East, endangering the two countries' national security.

Seoul's move represents a departure from its past successes marked by a courageous shift from confrontation to cooperation to break the curse of the Cold War seen in hosting the 1988 Olympics. That event earned it a turning point in history to enable economic prosperity in a better security environment.

Good relations with surrounding countries have helped its economy tide over the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the global turmoil in 2008, and made it a big winner in Northeast Asia and the whole world.

Geographic location has made its connections with China both necessary and convenient as China has become its biggest trading partner and biggest investment destination.

South Korea's annual trade with China is worth 300 billion U.S. dollars, which exceeds the total volume of its trade with the United States, Japan and the European Union combined, with 60 percent of its trade surplus coming from China. South Korea's economy has benefited much from cooperation with China as well as joint efforts toward regional peace and stability.

On top of these, membership of Beijing-initiated Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and a bilateral free trade deal are expected to drive it further forward on the way to economic success.

However, its decision to deploy THAAD regardless of Beijing's repeated opposition risks the prospect. As a THAAD system on its soil fits well into Washington's planned missile shield against China in the Asia-Pacific, the diversion from its 30-year fruitful commitment to regional peace and stability damages its political mutual trust with China.

Meanwhile, as the move is expected to stimulate Pyongyang to go further on its way of nuclear development, a vicious cycle of military confrontation is looming on an already volatile Korean Peninsula.

Disregarding old war memories, Cold War wounds and new lessons from intervention by outside forces in West Asia and North Africa, Seoul may face an outcome it cannot afford by tying itself to the U.S. chariot of Asia-Pacific re-balancing, or rather reducing itself to a ladder to be kicked down after serving the U.S. purpose of hegemony.

 

[BoQ77]

South Korea may think "Safety First" or "Deadman can't spend the money"
when they request US to put THAAD in their land.

 

[Brainsucker]

I have a question, these THAAD things will be operated by ROK military or the US military?

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

Economy has nothing to do with National security. US and China has more than 600B of trade, but yet, view each other with suspicion. Its time for China to understand that North Korea has gone beyond control. Either it should sit with US, to break N.Korea, or use its own pressure to make N. Korea responsible and open or it shouldnt cry.

 

[TaiShang]

Economy has nothing to do with National security. US and China has more than 600B of trade, but yet, view each other with suspicion. Its time for China to understand that North Korea has gone beyond control. Either it should sit with US, to break N.Korea, or use its own pressure to make N. Korea responsible and open or it shouldnt cry.

We do not think diplomacy the Indian way.

No crying in diplomacy. But building up pressure. The reasons for China's concerns have been listed and made known to the Korean partners such as the location of THAAD, the range and functions/capabilities of it that seem unmatched to the threat coming from the DPRK.

SK has the right to make sovereign choice (if it has any with respect to the US) but China will definitely keep reminding SK the likely repercussions.

China occupying 60% of Korea's trade surplus is a significant leverage.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

China occupying 60% of Korea's trade surplus is a significant leverage.

The US occupies similar kind of share of trade surplus of China.

China's trade surplus for 2015 was 600 billion dollars. China's surplus in trade with US was 366 billion dollars.

That makes China dependent on the US for 61% of its trade surplus.

How much leverage does the US have then over China?

 

[TaiShang]

Key points:

Deploying the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in South Korea will pose a serious threat to China's strategic security

Experts expects THAAD to raise regional tensions rather than deter the DPRK's nuclear and missile threats, which the South Korean government cited as a main reason for the THAAD deployment on its territory.

With the THAAD deployment, South Korea now enters the U.S. missile defense network, which would harm the geopolitical balance in the region and provoke strategic change from China and Russia.

A Russian newspaper pointed out that the US is trying to excuse its long-term presence around China and Russia under the pretext of the North Korean nuclear issue.

Though South Korean decision-makers are fully aware of the hidden motives of the US, they are stiff-necked in binding its destiny with the THAAD despite public opposition.

But Seoul may not able to afford the domino effect brought by its decision, as the price will be regional stability and the security interests of its neighbors.

The Korean Peninsula issue may finally encounter a dead end and nobody will be able to guarantee absolute peace on the powder keg. Amid such severe circumstances, the policy makers of South Korea should double their prudence to avoid the worst possibility.

The rushed and risky decision made by Seoul and Washington have crossed the security bottom line drawn by the South Korean public.

A poll released on Monday showed that public support for South Korean President Park Geun-hye has dropped. Some 60.7 percent view her governance negatively, and her support among those around 20 years old was below 10 percent.

As a matter of fact, the US and South Korea once promised to negotiate with China on the deployment of the THAAD system, but later turned hostile and announced the rushed decision. However, their plans to strengthen defensive capabilities at the cost of other countries’ security would be a one-sided calculation.

Analysts stressed that deploying missile defense systems may fuel a dangerous arms race in Northeast Asia, as China and Russia would probably take counter-measures that the US and South Korea cannot afford.

According to the experts, the THAAD deployment will bring nothing good to Seoul, but trap the country in a military confrontation between the three powers. Once a conflict breaks out, South Korea will inevitably be the first target.

As the THAAD deployment in South Korea will certainly impose a serious threat to China's strategic security, China will by no means stay indifferent and compromise its security interests.

http://en.people.cn/n3/2016/0804/c98649-9095345.html

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

The rushed and risky decision made by Seoul and Washington have crossed the security bottom line drawn by the South Korean public.

This statement is unsupported. Where did they ever poll people for their views on THAAD? That Park Geun Hye has low ratings doesn't mean that her THAAD decision will also be necessarily rated low.

A Russian newspaper pointed out that the US is trying to excuse its long-term presence around China and Russia under the pretext of the North Korean nuclear issue.

It is no pretext. North Korea is developing nukes, has them tested, and is now also testing Ballistic Missiles. North Korea owes its existence to China, and China must take part of the blame for the destabilizing presence of NoKo's nuclear program.

If it wants US out of the region, and SK good friends with it, perhaps it should actively work to offset North Korean threat?

 

[Viet]

The assessment is wrong. Thaad potentially endangers Chinese nuclear deterrent but not Russia. Take a world map. if China targets the US mainland, she has little choice which direction the missiles would take. Unlike Russia .

 

[Nan Yang]

You do not promote friendly neighborhood by building a shield around yourself.

 

[Oldman1]

You do not promote friendly neighborhood by building a shield around yourself.

So is building nukes.

 

[Viet]

You do not promote friendly neighborhood by building a shield around yourself.

China can't blame anyone. Xi Jinping, his comrades and common Chinese nationalistic cheerleaders can continue to stick into their self delusion. all of them believe to their own constructed propaganda.

But I believe that is just the beginning. The powder keg is the South China Sea, if China continues playing their foolish game.

 

[Oldman1]

We do not think diplomacy the Indian way.

No crying in diplomacy. But building up pressure. The reasons for China's concerns have been listed and made known to the Korean partners such as the location of THAAD, the range and functions/capabilities of it that seem unmatched to the threat coming from the DPRK.

Really? So North Korea building nukes and ballistic missiles is something we should downplay?

 

[xunzi]

Really? So North Korea building nukes and ballistic missiles is something we should downplay?

If NK nuke fired toward the US, it would be intercept on Japan THAAD. the distance of SK to NK is too close that they don't need to fire nuke. So yes, you put THAAD mainly to spy on us and Russia and build a shield in a potential nuclear war. I'm saying this many time. SK has the right to build nuke and we have the rights to nuke them in any nuclear exchange with you. Let get this clear.

 

[Nan Yang]

So is building nukes.

North Korea building nukes has nothing to do with South Korea.

Really? So North Korea building nukes and ballistic missiles is something we should downplay?

They are reacting to United States policy of regime change.