Zarvan
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On the 29th of July Mr Nitin Gokhale tweeted saying that India would be releasing the RFP (Request for Proposal) for the procurement of six submarines under the P75I program by the end of August 2020. This opens yet another chapter in the inconsistent and majorly delayed 30-year 24 Submarine building programme that the Indian government under former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee approved in the year 1999. This plan was an upgradation of an older 1997 plan under which India had planned to acquire 4 Scorpene Submarines with two being built at Mazagon Docks in Mumbai and two being imported directly from France. As per the new approved plan, post the Kargil war two different submarine vendors would be invited to set up parallel production lines in India and build six submarines each by 2012. Post 2012 these production facilities would be used to build further 12 submarines by 2030 giving the Indian Navy a credible modern force of 20+SSKs (diesel-electric submarines) in the first three decades of the 20th Century.
A series of setbacks were encountered which began with the delays in selection of and setting up of the first of these two programs. The simple 1997 plan which called for two Submarines to be acquired off the Shelf and another two to be assembled in Mumbai using kits from DCNS had been turned into the P75 program with numerous clauses for indigenization and 30% offsets. The negotiations and deliberations over these clauses caused delays which pushed the signing date forward to 2005, with the first boat now being delivered in 2012 instead of all 6 as envisaged in 1999. Further delays ensued on issues of procurement of various parts including propulsion systems and sensors which resulted in the commissioning of the first submarine getting pushed back to 2017 with the estimated completion date for the six P75 SSKs now getting pushed back to 2023 from 2017.
The P75I has faced far longer delays than the P75 with the first P75I RFI (Request for Information) getting issued in 2008 not translating into orders till date. There have been numerous changes beginning with the estimated costs Rs 53000Cr budget of October 2014 being reduced to Rs 40,000cr in January 2019. Most recently Mr Gokhale on his twitter has pegged the estimated cost at Rs 50,000cr or around $ 7Bn. The modalities of the program have changed as well with the initial plan from 2010 which envisaged the import of two submarines and building the balance four in India with three at Mazagon docks and one at Hindustan Shipyards changing into a Strategic partnership program that has Mazagon Dock s and Larsen &Toubro being the two Indian yards participating. The foreign manufacturers list too has gone through changes with Kockums (SAAB) which proposed the A26 oceanic SSK exiting the competition while Navantia & Daewoo have entered the fray offering the S80 plus and Dosan Ahn Changho-class submarine designs respectively.
The P75I specifications call for submarines equipped with AIP (Air-independent Propulsion) modules to increase underwater endurance while also packing in a VLS for a dozen Anti-ship and land attack cruise missiles. The requirements already mean the P75I vessels will be far larger than the Scorpene displacing at least 3000 Tonnes and upto 80mtrs in length.
The P75I today has five different shortlisted manufacturers and two shortlisted Indian Shipyards that will be used for the project. Amongst the foreign manufacturers the French represented by Naval Group are banking on what is now a fifteen-year long association with Mazagon Docks to win the P75I tender, the Naval Group offer while still under wraps is likely to be based on a derivative of the SMX 26 or SMX 3.0 concepts. It is interesting to note here that in 2019 Naval News reported that Naval Group was looking to pick up a stake in Mazagon docks limited during the next round of disinvestment as planned by the Indian Government. The Russians on the other hand have offered to shift an entire line of SSKs based on the Amur 1650 design with all intellectual property rights and production rights to India lock stock and barrel for India to build as many as it needs as part of a JV proposal, this is likely linked to the Russian plan to acquire Pipavav shipyards. It's also interesting to note that the Amur 1650 design already has a VLS and that Russia has offered to integrate the Brahmos SLCM to this design and that this offer is also linked to a design consultancy that Russia already works on in India for the Indian Navy Nuclear Submarine Project. The Germans have offered the tried and tested Type 214 HDW which has already been acquired by Turkey, Portugal, South Korea and Greece. While Germany has also reportedly offered to integrate the Brahmos SLCM into the design there is no version of the Type 214 which has VLS capability yet. The P75I project has also pulled in interest from two new contenders who responded to the last RFI issued in 2019. Navantia of Spain has proposed a variant of the S80plus class it has developed and is building for the Spanish Navy. This is a large 3500T design with Oceanic operation capabilities. Daewoo Shipbuilding of South Korea has put forward a proposal to build Six Dosan Ahn Chango class SSKs for the Indian Navy, in many ways these large 3700-4200T vessels are amongst the most advanced submarines on offer today with Lithium ion batteries and the capability to launch short range ballistic missiles as well.
The first of the Indian Yards that will finally build the selected design are the L&T shipyard at Kattupalli near Chennai. While the L&T yard may not have been used to build a complete submarine earlier it is pertinent to note that it is amongst the most well equipped in the country and that as a company L&T continues to be deeply invested into the Indian Navy nuclear submarine project. The 2nd yard selected is Mazagon docks, this yard has built all indigenously constructed submarines till date starting with construction of INS Shalki which was commissioned in 1992, it is currently building all six of the P75 boats and arguably has the deepest expertise in submarine building within India.
The P75I program is an expensive one with some estimates on cost going up to $11Bn dollars and given the recent recession on account of COVID and associated global economic issues it may take years before the RFI can actually be signed. At the same time, it is also true that the proliferation of comparatively cheap AIP equipped SSKs from South Korea and China into the immediate neighbourhood of India could result in the loss of technological and numerical superiority which the Indian Navy currently has in the underwater area. The coming decades will see the Pakistan Navy induct 8 new built S20 Class AIP SSKs from China to add to its existing fleet of three AIP equipped Agosta 90B SSKs. Unless action is taken urgently India may be left with only 6 Kalvari (Scorpene) class vessels and another 4-6 upgraded KILO and HDW type 209 boats holding the fort along with at least six nuclear submarines that should be part of the fleet by 2030. Even if the P75I deal is finalized and signed by 2022 the first submarine under this program will likely only be commissioned by 2030 with a second likely still under trials then. A number of proposals to boost the numbers in the interim are under discussion which include a Russian proposal to rebuild and supply three old KILO hulls while upgrading three IN KILO SSKs for $1.8Bn in what is being called the 3+3 plan. Alternative proposals discussed amongst enthusiasts on social media call for the Scorpene line at MDL to be kept functional, building at last four more SSKs and a proposal to scrap P75I and instead acquire six new build KILOs and four Scorpene while also upgrading four older KILO & two HDW to serve till 2035.These proposals would help the Indian Navy maintain its numerical and technological edge well into the 2030’s as well.
Estimated fleet strength under various options that the Indian Navy could follow to maintain submarine numbers, considering that 2 P75I boats are commissioned by 2030.
The Indian Navy has historically been a sea controlling Navy. It had risen to prominence in the IOR as early as the late 1950's by inducting aircraft carriers, cruisers, destroyers and other blue water craft at a time when all other regional navies were little more than coastal defence forces. That said modern realities including the rise of a numerically superior and technologically advanced challenger like the PLAN cannot be answered by the induction of surface assets alone. The preeminent status of India is now being challenged and will continue to get challenged as the PLAN inducts larger Sea Controlling assets like large CVNs, Cruisers and hundreds of DDGs (Destroyer Designated Guided) and FFGs (Guided-missile frigates). While challenging such a numerically superior opposition is difficult on the surface, a large force of modern and stealthy SSKs can help maintain the balance by threatening disproportionate damages to the OPFOR (Opposing Forces). India needs to take out a page from strategies adopted by the Soviet and Chinese navies in opposing the United States Navy (USN) and formulate the same to adopt a balance of Sea Controlling and Denial strategies that help it maintain its preeminent position in the IOR. The formation of a large and modern SSK force is key to denial and it is important to note here that even in the 24yrs plan the plan after procurement of two lines of SSKs was to build 12 indigenous SSKs. Even if India cannot hope to produce 12 indigenous SSKs by 2030, we must aim to at least build a prototype and have it sail by then. Indigenous analogues to almost all the key parts of any Submarine are now available; the future SSK fleet must be indigenous and India needs to work towards making that a reality.
Image provided by the author.
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