A complete encirclement Of Pakistan? by the Indo-Afghan alliance??

[Devil Soul]

A complete encirclement?
By Imtiaz Gul
Published: May 3, 2016

Pakistan’s encirclement by the Indo-Afghan alliance is nearly complete. The Afghan Army Chief General Qadam Shah Shaheem said on April 30 that if other options don’t yield any positive results in bringing Pakistani incursions to a halt, the Afghan Army would step in as a last resort in responding to military aggression along the Durand Line. The Indian foreign secretary told Pakistan that it “cannot be in denial of the impact of terrorism on the bilateral relationship”, essentially reiterating that terror and talks cannot go hand in hand. Quietly, New Delhi remains focused on entrenching itself at the Iranian Chabahar port to gain access to Afghanistan and Central Asian energy markets, as well as connecting with the Middle East and Europe. With Afghan transit trade down, traffic through Chabahar is likely to make Pakistan even more irrelevant for Afghan imports. India has also successfully cultivated the ruling elite in both Afghanistan and the land-locked Central Asian states, thereby trumping the natural geographical importance and relevance that Pakistan has for these countries.

India-Afghanistan trade through Pakistan

We in Pakistan believe to have successfully thwarted Indo-Afghan-American conspiracies against us. But empirical evidence — Pakistan’s image abroad and its continued isolation on issues related to terrorism — suggests that this ‘success’ continues to bleed Pakistan socially, politically and economically. Tactically, we have been successful — but at what cost? Beyond doubt, neither the US nor India can bend a nuclear-armed Pakistan. Both tried, but failed to dictate. Punish they can, nevertheless; and continue to do so, both directly and indirectly. Through its strategic investment and a whole-of-government approach towards Afghanistan, India has created a hornet’s nest for Pakistan. Those who are relevant in Afghanistan — from members of parliament, to President Ghani, to Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah, to former president Karzai and the civil-military establishment — are all blowing hot and cold on Pakistan as the supporter of “all those animals killing innocent Afghans”, a perception that resonates with common Afghans and is gaining currency by the day.
The way the Quadrilateral Contact Group has come to a halt on the heels of the deadly bombing in Kabul clearly illustrates that Pakistan has lost on the strategic front. It is fighting a modern war of perception-management with a Cold War-era tactical mindset blunted by an outdated bureaucratic implementation regime towards the war-battered country. The country cannot complete critical investments — a nuclear medicine hospital in Kabul or crucial road links — in nearly 10 years. The bureaucracy in Islamabad miserably fails in addressing Afghan importers’ grievances related to the transit trade.

Afghanistan losing interest in trade links with Pakistan

Many Pakistanis love to point to the US, India and other countries, despite the fact that Pakistan itself has relied on non-state actors in the last three decades to achieve geo-political objectives. From South America to the Middle East to Africa, we have seen support for such entities. Recently, President Obama expressed his determination to continue funding the training of anti-Assad Syrian non-state actors. This is considered to be fine as long as the US government and Congress consider it to be in the American interest. Most Pakistanis overlook the obvious difference here — a superpower, with all its might, or a burgeoning economy like that of India, can get away with such ventures. A struggling and marginalised economy — beset with endemic governance, political polarisation and a dearth of strategic vision — cannot.
Are our ruling elites thinking in the strategic way leaders in other countries think? We may be very good in tactical approaches. It has helped the country stay afloat, but is that enough for long-term peace, economic development and regional connectivity? Can the country afford policies that have drawn it into a prolonged state of conflict with both its major neighbours? The third neighbour — Iran — looks on as we hang on to the Cold War security matrix. Shouldn’t India’s growing economic proximity to Iran as well as to Saudi Arabia serve as a wake-up call to us all? That is real encirclement. Can an apologetic policy towards the Afghan Taliban really help the country end its global isolation and put it on the path to development?

Published in The Express Tribune, May 4th, 2016.

 

[vsdave2302]

Yes, Pakistan may face 3 front war of India , Afghanistan and Iran. India too has a risk of 2 front war from Pakistan and china.

 

[Dalit]

That is BS. Iran isn't waging war with Pakistan. We may have our tussles from time to time, but war is out of the question.

Pakistan has to deal with the porous Afghan border which has become a nightmare. Illegal refugees, drugs smugglers, child abductors and everyone else has a free pass to enter Pakistan. This is Pakistan's failure. Pakistan has to take care of the border area or pay a bloody price like it has until now. India is not a major problem. We'll deal with them accordingly.

As for regional trade between various nations. This can only be a brought to fruition when India is willing to resolve the Kashmir issue and stops using Afghanistan as a terror base against Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan too has to let Afghanistan go as a strategic base. There is nothing to be gained from Afghanistan.

I'm all for regional trade, peace and development, but not at the expense of downgrading Pakistan.

 

[shah1398]

Afghanistan and Iran.

Afghanistan Yes, Iran???...they aint stupid enough.

 

[third eye]

At the outset , it is most unfortunate that the author sees Indian engagement with Afghanistan as an encirclement.

It is this ' you are either my friend of his" approach which lies at the root of Pak polity . It is the proverbial mill stone around the neck.

The old joke in the Armed forces across the world is that Generals tend to fight the last war & plan for it ..

The parts quoted below are indicative of a Military approach to national decision making . It hasnt helped the nation thus far.

Yes, it has at best helped the nation to ' stay afloat' as the authpr puts it. But then , does a nation only wish to stay afloat of join the comity of nations as a contributing member ?

But empirical evidence — Pakistan’s image abroad and its continued isolation on issues related to terrorism — suggests that this ‘success’ continues to bleed Pakistan socially, politically and economically. Tactically, we have been successful — but at what cost?

Many Pakistanis love to point to the US, India and other countries, despite the fact that Pakistan itself has relied on non-state actors in the last three decades to achieve geo-political objectives.

Are our ruling elites thinking in the strategic way leaders in other countries think? We may be very good in tactical approaches. It has helped the country stay afloat, but is that enough for long-term peace, economic development and regional connectivity?

 

[Dalit]

At the outset , it is most unfortunate that the author sees Indian engagement with Afghanistan as an encirclement.

It is this ' you are either my friend of his" approach which lies at the root of Pak polity . It is the proverbial mill stone around the neck.

The old joke in the Armed forces across the world is that Generals tend to fight the last war & plan for it ..

The parts quoted below are indicative of a Military approach to national decision making . It hasnt helped the nation thus far.

Yes, it has at best helped the nation to ' stay afloat' as the authpr puts it. But then , does a nation only wish to stay afloat of join the comity of nations as a contributing member ?

The problem is that India uses the Afghan soil to destabilize Pakistan. It is an established fact that Indian consulates have become terror outfits where suicide attackers are trained to harm Pakistan. Let's not pretend otherwise because there is overwhelming proof to back this up. In fact, many top Indian officials in various capacities have acknowledged this on numerous occasions. Terror is a much preferred tool by India. To top it all, it is happening right under the nose of an occupying force, namely the US.

You cannot expect peace and trade at the expense of harming Pakistan. You seek to use Pakistani territory for engagement with Afghanistan and Central Asia, yet you also indulge in harming Pakistan by use of terror. These things don't go hand in hand. India and the US are going to have to make a choice. They either seek peace with all the actors involved and treat every country on a level playing field. Otherwise, the outcome is right before you. This is a frank assessment.

 

[Qutb-ud-din Aybak]

Afghanistan Yes, Iran???...they aint stupid enough.

the current afghan government represents northern allaince which was always anti pakistan. the majority 66 percent mostly pushtuns they are already in war with them. Pakistan can end their rule if they ever get a chance. afterall afghan taliban just needs some anti aircraft weapons to do so and in case of war between kabul and pakistan they will get them.

 

[third eye]

The problem is that India uses the Afghan soil to destabilize Pakistan. It is an established fact that Indian consulates have become terror outfits where suicide attackers are trained to harm Pakistan. Let's not pretend otherwise because there is overwhelming proof to back this up. In fact, many top Indian officials in various capacities have acknowledged this on numerous occasions. Terror is a much preferred tool by India. To top it all, it is happening right under the nose of an occupying force, namely the US.

You cannot expect peace and trade at the expense of harming Pakistan. India and the US are going to have to make a choice. They either seek peace with all the actors involved and treat every country on a level playing field. Otherwise, the outcome is right before you.

India has always torn a page out of the Pak book of dirty tricks. Unfortunately for Pakistan, India has done a better job of it in most cases.

Maybe parts of what you have written are correct , I dont want to get int a who started it first dialogue.

However, its worth evaluating where & how is it helping ? A serious change in direction is needed obviously respecting the nations self respect . If not then the nation will at best ' remain afloat'.

 

[Dalit]

the current afghan government represents northern allaince which was always anti pakistan. the majority 66 percent mostly pushtuns they are already in war with them. Pakistan can end their rule if they ever get a chance. afterall afghan taliban just needs some anti aircraft weapons to do so and in case of war between kabul and pakistan they will get them.

No doubt, the Northern Alliance is an anti-Pakistan force across the border. These fools think that they can harm Pakistan by allowing Indian terror consulates to operate freely in Kabul. They are sorely mistaken. Afghanistan is never going to prosper as long as it treats the Pashtun majority as third rate citizens. We saw the same problem in Iraq where the Americans decided to support the Shiite minority and alienate the Sunni majority. Look at Iraq today. The same story in Syria and other conflict zones around the world. Alienating an entire group of population always backfires.

 

[PDF]

In do - Afghan relationship currently does not effect Pakistan. Afghanistan is a problematic place and it will take time to come out of the mess. Pakistan plays an important role in the Afghanistan's situation.
Yes We have reservations regarding the Indian role in Afghanistan but us being surrounded or isolated is a wrong deduction.

 

[shah1398]

the current afghan government represents northern allaince which was always anti pakistan. the majority 66 percent mostly pushtuns they are already in war with them. Pakistan can end their rule if they ever get a chance. afterall afghan taliban just needs some anti aircraft weapons to do so and in case of war between kabul and pakistan they will get them.

Khattak Khana U ve already spelled out the strategy of how to deal with NA govt in Kabul if they dare launch any aggression against us, toeing lines of India. And as a matter of fact ATs are quite self sufficient in all matters. Once ANA tries to launch anything against Pakistan, the vacuum left by ANA in Afghanistan wud let ATs unleash hell on them from behind and elsewhere in Afghanistan.

 

[Dalit]

India has always torn a page out of the Pak book of dirty tricks. Unfortunately for Pakistan, India has done a better job of it in most cases.

Maybe parts of what you have written are correct , I dont want to get int a who started it first dialogue.

However, its worth evaluating where & how is it helping ? A serious change in direction is needed obviously respecting the nations self respect . If not then the nation will at best ' remain afloat'.

That's an accusation on your part because we think the same about India. India has always resorted to terror tactics long before its presence in Afghanistan. Kashmir is a clear cut example. Lately, India has had the luck of a superpower siding with it. Pakistan had the same support during the Cold War. Nevertheless, this doesn't solve anything because Afghanistan is a hellhole and as long as various actors aren't treated on equal footing it will remain that way.

The key lies with the US. Are they willing to give the Pashtun Sunni majority an equal chance of participation as opposed to other ethnic groups? If not, don't blame Pakistan for the problems in Afghanistan. US policies in Afghanistan are a disaster.

 

[Rank]

Okay... my question is.. where was PAKISTANI SO CALLED SUPER DUPER policy makers ? what they did to counter that ???? this is my question since last 16 years ?

 

[Dalit]

Okay... my question is.. where was PAKISTANI SO CALLED SUPER DUPER policy makers ? what they did to counter that ???? this is my question since last 16 years ?

They were too busy looting the wealth of the people and stashing it abroad. There is only one institute in Pakistan that runs the country. It is not the corrupt politicians I can assure you.

 

[I.R.A]

Kabul is in no position to fight anyone except saving their own rear from Afghanistan.

Pakistan should have realised from start that Chahbahar is a competitor (a direct threat to interests of Pakistan) and not a sister port, the whole strategy should have revolved around that fact. When others can harm Gawadar why Pakistan cannot do the same?