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$720m accords signed for Tarbela 5th extension, Balochistan, FATA

I am all for building dams as I directly suffer from floods every year with massive losses to crops, livestock & farm machinery. No matter how big or small the floods are in size. Having more dams would reduce all those losses, but I also know without floods the under water table would also drop lower massively & may also disappear altogether writhin a decade or two of all these dams being built. Our methods of agriculture ( as in choices of crops ) & irrigation ( using turbinepumps for pulling underground water ) are disastrous in the long run ( well not so long run if you consider a few decades a mere blip in time ). Now 60% of our population is agri-dependant & so is our economy.

My fear is how on earth are we going to cop with the consequences ?

To avoid any disastrous impact on our economy, society & the nation at large we have only 2 options,

Either we industrialise & industrialise quick in the next 2 decades & that requires a revolution in both electrical & mechanical fields & even more urbanisation. Which I don't see happening. Although urbanisation would continue or may even increase if we fail to industrialise.

Or we revolutionise our agriculture. Now that requires not only alternate methods of agriculture but also training, encouragement & incentives & even legislation. Discourage the cultivation of water intensive crops like Rice & Sugar Cane. Invest in seed research & seed banks. Invest in agri & vet sciences. All in all make agriculture a priority, which frankly I don't see happening any time soon under this Faqeer/Lohar/Sherhri Babu tola.
This is an important thought process of a rural person. Most people on this forum clearly are urban people, most who haven't had to live in a village. 62% of our population lives in these rural areas. Getting the viewpoint of the people from these rural areas is necessary when deciding to build dams. Rest of your post I can't agree or disagree with as I am not a professional in this matter nor have I ever taken agriculture as a subject. But it sounds like a thoughtful post.
 
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but I also know without floods the under water table would also drop lower massively & may also disappear altogether writhin a decade or two of all these dams being built.
Our methods of agriculture ( as in choices of crops ) & irrigation ( using turbinepumps for pulling underground water ) are disastrous in the long run ( well not so long run if you consider a few decades a mere blip in time ).

I would disagree. Please read my note on this: https://defence.pk/threads/water-scarcity-aging-canal-system-and-food-security.396511/#post-7619922
From the note you will see we have enough surface water to take care of irrigation and drinking water needs at present. If the old canal system if upgraded would mean we won't need to pump water from underground in order to cultivate crops. If we stop or reduce the pumping then the underground water table will slowly come back to normal. The aim would be to keep the underground water table at a sustainable levels.

Either we industrialise & industrialise quick in the next 2 decades & that requires a revolution in both electrical & mechanical fields & even more urbanisation. Which I don't see happening. Although urbanisation would continue or may even increase if we fail to industrialise.
Urbanization and industrialization would also require water management and more so then irrigation. In this scenario water gets used and a waste product comes out which will further contaminate underground/surface water unless we have water treatment plants etc. I wouldn't go into details but I could touch on the effects if you wish.

Or we revolutionise our agriculture. Now that requires not only alternate methods of agriculture but also training, encouragement & incentives & even legislation. Discourage the cultivation of water intensive crops like Rice & Sugar Cane. Invest in seed research & seed banks. Invest in agri & vet sciences. All in all make agriculture a priority, which frankly I don't see happening any time soon under this Faqeer/Lohar/Sherhri Babu tola.
As per my earlier post. We need to upgrade the current storage and delivery system of water and alongside this we can modernize our agriculture practices. Rice and Sugar Cane can be cultivated but only in northern areas where water is abundant. I normally propose that the land lords should start by employing modern techniques to farming in order to bring some change to the sector. This way government can concentrate on storage and delivery of water in best way possible and farmers can use this water in best way possible.
 
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This is an important thought process of a rural person. Most people on this forum clearly are urban people, most who haven't had to live in a village. 62% of our population lives in these rural areas. Getting the viewpoint of the people from these rural areas is necessary when deciding to build dams. Rest of your post I can't agree or disagree with as I am not a professional in this matter nor have I ever taken agriculture as a subject. But it sounds like a thoughtful post.

Thank you for your kind words & understanding. See the most saddening part about this sorry tale is the lousy & apathetic nature of the farming community. It is astonishing to see & realise how expressionless farming communities are. See all the rural skilled ( barbers, coblers, carpenters ) communities found their voice in a post socialist world. Ordinary farmers were just lumped together with Jaagirdars. Farming is a labour intensive profession & for a small to medium sized farmer doesn't really hold much influence or glamour like an SHO, a doctor, a minor engineer or civil servant. This is where farmers were left behind by socialism.

I would disagree. Please read my note on this: https://defence.pk/threads/water-scarcity-aging-canal-system-and-food-security.396511/#post-7619922
From the note you will see we have enough surface water to take care of irrigation and drinking water needs at present. If the old canal system if upgraded would mean we won't need to pump water from underground in order to cultivate crops. If we stop or reduce the pumping then the underground water table will slowly come back to normal. The aim would be to keep the underground water table at a sustainable levels.


Urbanization and industrialization would also require water management and more so then irrigation. In this scenario water gets used and a waste product comes out which will further contaminate underground/surface water unless we have water treatment plants etc. I wouldn't go into details but I could touch on the effects if you wish.


As per my earlier post. We need to upgrade the current storage and delivery system of water and alongside this we can modernize our agriculture practices. Rice and Sugar Cane can be cultivated but only in northern areas where water is abundant. I normally propose that the land lords should start by employing modern techniques to farming in order to bring some change to the sector. This way government can concentrate on storage and delivery of water in best way possible and farmers can use this water in best way possible.

I would disagree that upgrading the old canal system would put a stop to pulling water from underground. Even though we have the largest canal system in the world, canals do not & simply can not irrigate all the cultivatable area in a district like Sargodha, let alone the rest of Punjab & Pakistan. I have some land right at the river banks of the Chenab, some land about 10 miles from the river & some right in the middle of a seasonal river tributary which swells to a mile wide in July, August & then disappear altogether by October.
I do agree howeve that it may reduce the need to pull water from underground resources. But that is no guarantee that water wastage would diminish. Trust me a farmer is more likely to use water in a responsible manner if he is paying for the petrol or diesel costs of pulling it out from the ground than he is to use a communally used source like a canal, where he only pays a 1000 rupees every six months to Mehkma Aab pashi. I have a small tract of land in my ancestral village which is directly irrigated by a canal channel & trust me the abuse & theft of it is by no means worth the resource. There was no quantifiable way to record the water usage by any individual apart from a few ghost employees on the papers of mehkma aabpashi or the days of use allocated to an individual farmer which always resulted in disputes. We have long since bored the ground & put a small turbine engine to irrigate. If we let the rivers flow normally let's say how it was before 1947, with normal flooding pattern it will take more than 50 years to bring the water table back to the pre 1947 levels. Which is no way a feasible idea.

What we need is the Drip Feed system run on scientific basis, incentivised & subsidised by the government for the first 5 year period & then legislated as law & enforced with fines & punishments.

Reduction in water intensive crops by means of maximum quotas allowed for a season i.e, allow one division each in Punjab & Sindh to cultivate rice for a season, allowing for enough produce to cover our domestic needs & leave 5% as a surplus to sell internationally. Produce less, market a food commodity as a luxury item without actually incurring luxury items taxation like Italians do & earn more. Same again for other crops. All in all invest in agriculture, make farming fashionable & sophisticated, market BRAND INDUS.

I completely agree with your point about urbanisation & its effects ( of which all our major cities except Islamabad are glaring examples ). That's exactly why I believe it's easier & more feasible to invest in the second option mentioned above in my first comment.
 
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It will not increase water storage. It will help generate more electricity in summer, remember in winter Tarbela drop to just around 1000MW.
will produce energy only when water is discharged to through tunnel 5, so output will be very variable, and surely no power will be added during winter or even the rest of 8 months
but given this is 90% foreign funded there is no harm in it
 
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will produce energy only when water is discharged to through tunnel 5, so output will be very variable, and surely no power will be added during winter or even the rest of 8 months
but given this is 90% foreign funded there is no harm in it
Sir the bottom line is,

Wapda website states that extension V will generate 1810 GWH per year.

http://www.wapda.gov.pk/index.php/projects/hydro-power/on-going/tarbela-5th-extension

And we know that Tarbela is generating electricity for less than 1 rupee per unit. But since this is foreign funding so we hypothetically expect Nepra to buy electricity for 8 cents per unit as is the case for most of the projects in Pakistan.

If we use this calculator

http://www.aqua-calc.com/calculate/electricity-cost

we realise that it will take about 1.5 million dollar per month to generate 150833333333 units of electricity and if they do sell it for 8 cents they get back 12 million USD of earning in return which means for 1 year the total cost of generation is 18 million dollar and they get 144 million USD back after one year. Which means net profit of 126 million usd per year...

Imagine 800 million dollar of investment will be recovered in just 6-7 years... and I have of course not counter line losses and overhead cost... but its likely to remain very ideal project anytime of the day.
 
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I would disagree that upgrading the old canal system would put a stop to pulling water from underground.
Sir if you read my note which gives figures for the water seepage and conveyance losses (25-30 maf) and you will appreciate what I am trying to point in my replies. I have also put tables in for the entire cultivable land at present for Pakistan by crop type and its possible water use. We have about 142 maf of surface water and out of this almost 35 maf is drained to the sea on average. Now imagine how many Tarbela dams can be filled with 35 maf (Tarbela when built had 9.7 maf which is now reduce to almost 6 maf). We pump about 45maf (don't have source to hand) underground water. So if we do the maths 35maf (drained to Sea) + ~30maf (seepage & conveyance losses) = 65maf. If we can even save half of that water and use it in the current scenario we will have enough for the crops we cultivate at the moment. This is before we talk about the modernization of the irrigation practices.

Trust me a farmer is more likely to use water in a responsible manner if he is paying for the petrol or diesel costs of pulling it out from the ground than he is to use a communally used source like a canal, where he only pays a 1000 rupees every six months to Mehkma Aab pashi.
Agree. Hence the Canal water charge should be increased to fund the said modernization. Imagine having water from canal all year around.... No need to use electricity and diesel to get water (or very less in areas as you mentioned which are not under the current canal system)....Save electricity and diesel (less import bill).

If we let the rivers flow normally let's say how it was before 1947, with normal flooding pattern it will take more than 50 years to bring the water table back to the pre 1947 levels. Which is no way a feasible idea.
Sir the damage is done already and we can only try to save what is left. Furthermore please read up on Salinity and water logging (once Faisal Abad and many other cities were under water, Southern Punjab had very bad problem with water logging). Water tables need to be managed properly and seepage from canals doesn't help together with ancient irrigation practices.... You are right about it will take a long time for the Aquifer to replenish to the same levels as before.

What we need is the Drip Feed system run on scientific basis, incentivised & subsidised by the government for the first 5 year period & then legislated as law & enforced with fines & punishments.
We are beating the same bush here....
We have digressed from the topic a bit too much and maybe we should open a separate thread to discuss these things as we are only touching the surface here....
 
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Yes there was a survey done and it was decided not to de-silt as it would have adverse affect on the turbines as well as downstream barrages. Also it won't be cost effective.
You may be right. I agree with you that at the moment de-silting might not be cost effective but in future we will have to develop technology to mine the silt and transfer it to deserts to make them fertile. A very futuristic idea at the moment which may sound crazy to many people but we will have to do it or lose our dams to silt in the long run.
 
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