70% chance of big Tokyo earthquake 'within 4 yrs' : Science & Nature : Features : DAILY YOMIURI ONLINE (The Daily Yomiuri)
Since Osaka is no safe, it maybe a time to move Japan's capital North.70% chance of big Tokyo earthquake 'within 4 yrs'
The Yomiuri Shimbun
There is a 70 percent probability the Tokyo metropolitan area will be hit directly by a strong earthquake of magnitude-7 level within four years, according to data compiled by a University of Tokyo research team.
The preliminary calculations conducted by a team from the university's Earthquake Research Institute were based on intensified seismic activity in the area after the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11.
The findings are more dire than a similar estimate by the central government's Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, which states there is a 70 percent chance a quake of the same scale will hit the southern Kanto region, including the metropolitan area, within 30 years.
If a magnitude-7.3 earthquake occurs directly under northern Tokyo Bay, as many as 11,000 people are expected to die and about 850,000 buildings to be rendered totally unusable or destroyed by fire.