Bill Longley
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27 Feb, When Indian power bluff was exposed
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Bill Longley
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Pakistani nation is celebrated 27th Feb as Surprise day to mark last year Air Skirmish between India and Pakistan on LoC. This day is important because it revealed Indian power bluff and also proved PAF’s concepts and capabilities.
Indian leadership achieved political benefit from Balakot strike on 26th but Pakistan responded and achieved strategically
On 26th Feb 2019, Indian Air Force violated Pakistani Air space and droped bombs in forest area of Balakot on pretext of surgical strike against Jaish e Muhammad which according to India was behind Pulwama attack which killed scores of Indian soldiers in IOK on 15 Feb 2019.
IAF named this so called surgical strike as Operation Bander. 12 Mirage 2000 fighters took part in this operation. IAF and Indian media claimed that Indian jets stayed in Pakistani territory for 21 minutes and that IAF striked killed allegedly around 350 militants.
On same day DG ISPR Major Gen. Asif Ghafoor in his press briefing negated all the Indian claims and promised retaliation.
"I said three things: You will never be able to surprise us. We have not been surprised. We were ready, we responded, we denied. I said we will retain the escalation ladder. We have that initiative in our hand," he said
Answer to Operation Bander was necessary and in order to avoid a large conflict it was very important to climb escalation ladder because if Pakistan had failed it would have destroyed credibility of Pakistan’s nuclear Deterrence as it was first Indian strike in area with in main land Pakistan after 1971 war and any weakness would have given wrong signals to enemy.
On February 27, Pakistani planes struck Indian positions across the LoC. This skirmish resulted in an air battle in which the PAF shot down two Indian planes. A MIG-21 was shot down by PAF JF17 Thunder, which fell on the Pakistani side, whereas the other IAF SU 30 fell inside India.
Plan was of two phases.
1. Pakistani Strike near important Indian military targets on LoC for signaling to India that remain in your limit we don’t want escalation but if India want next time PAF will hit the targets and Indian forces will suffer a lot.
2. Ensuring IAF fighters enter the ambush laid by PAF for enemy planes responding to PAF strike and ensuring maximum damage to Jets.
According to Col Pravin Sawhney, Chief Editor Force Magazine in his talk in Military literature festival 2019 held at Chandigarh “ PAF was in full control on 27th Feb. They dropped ordinance in thickly populated and militarized area, ensuring no damage to lives and signalling that they have capacity and capability to inflict punishment but Pakistan dont want escalation but is ready for what India choose ”
Around PAF counter strike Indians shot their own helicopter killing all on board mistaking it as Pakistani helicopter. Indian pilot Abhinandan Varthaman was arrested, but after two days returned as a gesture of Pakistan’s goodwill.
On February 28, New Delhi again threaten Pakistan. This time Indian Security Advisor Ajit Doval threatened to fire 6 missiles on Pakistani targets. Upon which, Pakistan responded by telling New Delhi that “whatever India will do, Pakistan will respond three times to that.”
After the initial bravado by Indian Armed forces and media, things started getting clear. IAF attack on Balakot and claim of hundreds of casualties turned out to be joke. International experts with help of satellite pictures proved that IAF failed to inflict any damage and in fear of PAF ran back dropping munitions in jungle.
IAF Chief Air Chief Marshal B S Dhanoa in his talk at army literature festival 2019 admitted that IAF was lacking operational data-link (ODL). Indian Military which claims to be network enabled and talk big about “Cold Start Doctrine” failed to display basic network centric capabilities. Dhanoa also admitted technological superiority of PAF.
Colonel Pravin Sawhney, revealed at festival that IAF Su 30’s came back to their bases without facing Pakistan Air Force because they were blinded and their sensors were blocked by better Pakistani counter electronic measures.
India’s claim of shooting F-16 by MIG 21 also became joke of the year. U.S. scholar and academic Christine Fair although know and staunch enemy of Pakistan refuted Indian version in front of senior Indian Military officers by saying They LACK INTEGRITY
Swift retort had strategic effects. It preserved Pakistan’s credible nuclear deterrence and also the respect and honor of the nation.It revealed Indian power bluff and exposed it badly. In words of editor force magazine,
“A senior US diplomat told me after Balakot there is skepticism in US circles if for 30 years they backed the wrong horse”
https://strategicaffairsanalysis.blogspot.com/2020/02/surprize-day-when-indian-power-bluff.html
Indian leadership achieved political benefit from Balakot strike on 26th but Pakistan responded and achieved strategically
On 26th Feb 2019, Indian Air Force violated Pakistani Air space and droped bombs in forest area of Balakot on pretext of surgical strike against Jaish e Muhammad which according to India was behind Pulwama attack which killed scores of Indian soldiers in IOK on 15 Feb 2019.
IAF named this so called surgical strike as Operation Bander. 12 Mirage 2000 fighters took part in this operation. IAF and Indian media claimed that Indian jets stayed in Pakistani territory for 21 minutes and that IAF striked killed allegedly around 350 militants.
"I said three things: You will never be able to surprise us. We have not been surprised. We were ready, we responded, we denied. I said we will retain the escalation ladder. We have that initiative in our hand," he said
Answer to Operation Bander was necessary and in order to avoid a large conflict it was very important to climb escalation ladder because if Pakistan had failed it would have destroyed credibility of Pakistan’s nuclear Deterrence as it was first Indian strike in area with in main land Pakistan after 1971 war and any weakness would have given wrong signals to enemy.
Plan was of two phases.
1. Pakistani Strike near important Indian military targets on LoC for signaling to India that remain in your limit we don’t want escalation but if India want next time PAF will hit the targets and Indian forces will suffer a lot.
2. Ensuring IAF fighters enter the ambush laid by PAF for enemy planes responding to PAF strike and ensuring maximum damage to Jets.
According to Col Pravin Sawhney, Chief Editor Force Magazine in his talk in Military literature festival 2019 held at Chandigarh “ PAF was in full control on 27th Feb. They dropped ordinance in thickly populated and militarized area, ensuring no damage to lives and signalling that they have capacity and capability to inflict punishment but Pakistan dont want escalation but is ready for what India choose ”
Around PAF counter strike Indians shot their own helicopter killing all on board mistaking it as Pakistani helicopter. Indian pilot Abhinandan Varthaman was arrested, but after two days returned as a gesture of Pakistan’s goodwill.
On February 28, New Delhi again threaten Pakistan. This time Indian Security Advisor Ajit Doval threatened to fire 6 missiles on Pakistani targets. Upon which, Pakistan responded by telling New Delhi that “whatever India will do, Pakistan will respond three times to that.”
After the initial bravado by Indian Armed forces and media, things started getting clear. IAF attack on Balakot and claim of hundreds of casualties turned out to be joke. International experts with help of satellite pictures proved that IAF failed to inflict any damage and in fear of PAF ran back dropping munitions in jungle.
IAF Chief Air Chief Marshal B S Dhanoa in his talk at army literature festival 2019 admitted that IAF was lacking operational data-link (ODL). Indian Military which claims to be network enabled and talk big about “Cold Start Doctrine” failed to display basic network centric capabilities. Dhanoa also admitted technological superiority of PAF.
India’s claim of shooting F-16 by MIG 21 also became joke of the year. U.S. scholar and academic Christine Fair although know and staunch enemy of Pakistan refuted Indian version in front of senior Indian Military officers by saying They LACK INTEGRITY
Swift retort had strategic effects. It preserved Pakistan’s credible nuclear deterrence and also the respect and honor of the nation.It revealed Indian power bluff and exposed it badly. In words of editor force magazine,
“A senior US diplomat told me after Balakot there is skepticism in US circles if for 30 years they backed the wrong horse”
https://strategicaffairsanalysis.blogspot.com/2020/02/surprize-day-when-indian-power-bluff.html
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