nangyale
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2014 withdrawal blues
“America’s longest war” has entered a new phase, with civilians increasingly getting caught in the crosshairs as Afghan National Security Forces and insurgents battle it out for supremacy, the latest International Crisis Group (ICG) report reveals.
“The overall trend is one of escalating violence and insurgent attacks. Ongoing withdrawals of international soldiers have generally coincided with a deterioration of Kabul’s reach in outlying districts,” the Brussels-based non-profit said in a 56-page report released on Sunday.
Drawing on data compiled by the United Nations earlier this year, ICG notes a severe uptick in civilian casualties, which spiked 14 percent in 2013. About 27 percent of those casualties stemmed from fighting between Afghan security forces and insurgents, the bulk of which could not be blamed on any one side.
With most of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) scheduled to depart by 31 December 2014, ICG fears the balance “could tip in favor of the insurgency, particularly in some rural locations.”
“This 'fog of war' dynamic reflects the changed nature of the conflict in Afghanistan in 2013 which was increasingly being waged in civilian communities and populated areas," the United Nations said earlier this year.
Safety concerns have spurred Afghans to increasingly apply for asylum in Western countries in 2013, with an estimated 106,000 fleeing their homes for safer parts of the country in the first half of that year, ICG said.
This insecurity has been fueled by President Hamid Karzai’s reluctance to sign a Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the US and an associated Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
ISAF force levels have already dropped from their peak of 132,000 in 2011 to some 55,000 in early 2014. Even if Afghan authorities do eventually agree to a post-2014 mission (Operation Resolute Support), which would see a combined force of 8,000 to 12,000 international troops on the ground, security would by and large remain an Afghan affair.
A NATO helicopter hovers as smoke rises from the site of a suicide attack in Jalalabad province on May 12, 2014 (AFP Photo / Noorullah Shirzada)
According to ICG, international trainers built up the ANSF in the transition period from roughly 224,000 in May 2010 to an estimated 345,000 by January 2014. Those expanded ranks may prove hard to maintain, however, as the salaries have been paid by outside donors. With an estimated 370,000 Afghan security personal working today, donors have so far only pledged long-term funding for 228,500.
Conducting extensive case studies in 4 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces, a less than uniform picture emerges of Afghan’s security challenges.
ICG, which conducted case studies of 4 of the 34 provinces, notes how both long-standing tensions and recent events are likely to affect the security situation in varied ways.
Historical feuds, unresolved grievances, ethnic and tribal tensions and “mistreatment of Afghans at the hands of their own security forces” are all cited as potential sources of violence upon the final withdrawal of foreign forces.
“America’s longest war” has entered a new phase, with civilians increasingly getting caught in the crosshairs as Afghan National Security Forces and insurgents battle it out for supremacy, the latest International Crisis Group (ICG) report reveals.
“The overall trend is one of escalating violence and insurgent attacks. Ongoing withdrawals of international soldiers have generally coincided with a deterioration of Kabul’s reach in outlying districts,” the Brussels-based non-profit said in a 56-page report released on Sunday.
Drawing on data compiled by the United Nations earlier this year, ICG notes a severe uptick in civilian casualties, which spiked 14 percent in 2013. About 27 percent of those casualties stemmed from fighting between Afghan security forces and insurgents, the bulk of which could not be blamed on any one side.
With most of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) scheduled to depart by 31 December 2014, ICG fears the balance “could tip in favor of the insurgency, particularly in some rural locations.”
“This 'fog of war' dynamic reflects the changed nature of the conflict in Afghanistan in 2013 which was increasingly being waged in civilian communities and populated areas," the United Nations said earlier this year.
Safety concerns have spurred Afghans to increasingly apply for asylum in Western countries in 2013, with an estimated 106,000 fleeing their homes for safer parts of the country in the first half of that year, ICG said.
This insecurity has been fueled by President Hamid Karzai’s reluctance to sign a Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the US and an associated Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
ISAF force levels have already dropped from their peak of 132,000 in 2011 to some 55,000 in early 2014. Even if Afghan authorities do eventually agree to a post-2014 mission (Operation Resolute Support), which would see a combined force of 8,000 to 12,000 international troops on the ground, security would by and large remain an Afghan affair.
A NATO helicopter hovers as smoke rises from the site of a suicide attack in Jalalabad province on May 12, 2014 (AFP Photo / Noorullah Shirzada)
According to ICG, international trainers built up the ANSF in the transition period from roughly 224,000 in May 2010 to an estimated 345,000 by January 2014. Those expanded ranks may prove hard to maintain, however, as the salaries have been paid by outside donors. With an estimated 370,000 Afghan security personal working today, donors have so far only pledged long-term funding for 228,500.
Conducting extensive case studies in 4 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces, a less than uniform picture emerges of Afghan’s security challenges.
ICG, which conducted case studies of 4 of the 34 provinces, notes how both long-standing tensions and recent events are likely to affect the security situation in varied ways.
Historical feuds, unresolved grievances, ethnic and tribal tensions and “mistreatment of Afghans at the hands of their own security forces” are all cited as potential sources of violence upon the final withdrawal of foreign forces.
