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17% export growth if Bangladesh signs FTA with RCEP bloc

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17% export growth if Bangladesh signs FTA with RCEP bloc​

A feature of the RCEP is that it represents the world's largest FTA, comprising about 30% of global GDP

Whatsapp Image 2021 10 13 At 513 514

Mahmud Hossain Opu/Dhaka Tribune
Tribune Desk
July 2, 2022 6:57 AM

The country's export may grow by 17% and gross domestic product (GDP) 0.26% if a free-trade agreement (FTA) is signed with member-states of the emerging Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) bloc.

The RCEP deal, which came into force in January this year, is considered high-quality, modern and comprehensive FTA between ten member-states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its five FTA partners.

The ASEAN members are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, while its FTA partners are Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and Korea.

A feature of the RCEP is that it represents the world's largest FTA, comprising about 30% of global GDP and about a third of the world population.

The economic cooperation bloc covers 2.3 billion people, contributes $25.8 trillion or about 30% of global GDP, and accounts for $12.7 trillion or over a quarter of global trade in goods and services, and 31% of global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows.

A recent study of the Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission (BTTC) shows that bilateral trade of Bangladesh with RCEP member-countries is mostly concentrated towards goods trade.

In the fiscal year 2020-21, Bangladesh exported goods worth $3.9 billion and imported goods worth $24.5 billion.

On the other hand, at the same time, the services export was $1.8 billion and import was worth $2.6 billion.

Bangladesh enjoys preferential market access to many of the RCEP countries, either through preferential trade agreement (PTA) or through GSP facilities.

After graduating from the least-developed country (LDC) status in 2026, the duty-free access will no longer be available except for reciprocal general preference under the Asia-Pacifica Trade Agreement (APTA).

In such a situation, sustaining the consistent progress achieved by Bangladesh in bilateral export trade with some of the RCEP countries as well as availing the opportunity to some potential destinations in RCEP will be a real challenge.

The study says RCEP includes some of the major export destinations as well as major import sources of Bangladesh.

Considering the bilateral-trade scenario, RCEP remains more as an important partner from the Bangladesh perspective.

Import from RCEP contributes around 43.92% of the total global import of Bangladesh, 55.33% of the total tax revenue and 58.56% of total revenue from customs duty collected under home consumption, as of FY21.

Since some major import sources of Bangladesh like China, Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia are involved with RCEP, there is a threat of losing certain amount of revenue from these countries.

More than 68% of total merchandise exports to RCEP are under apparel- product category.

Top twenty export items to RCEP mostly consist of apparel products and these twenty products constitute 64% of total export items.

The study found that the average most-favoured nation (MFN) tariff for Bangladesh has been comparatively higher than that of the RCEP members.

It said that the probable increase in import along with a comparatively protective regime of Bangladesh estimated a probable high revenue loss for Bangladesh compared to that of the RCEP.

However, as estimated trade creation would likely be higher than the trade-diversion effect for Bangladesh, it may generate additional revenue from other duties and charges, if not reduced due to a possible accession in RCEP, the study mentioned.

The Trade and Tariff Commission recommended that the government may express its positive stand regarding the accession of Bangladesh to RCEP through weighing all the pros and cons.

In that case, domestic rules and regulations may require to be changed in some cases, if situation arose.

 

17% export growth if Bangladesh signs FTA with RCEP bloc​

A feature of the RCEP is that it represents the world's largest FTA, comprising about 30% of global GDP

Whatsapp Image 2021 10 13 At 513 514

Mahmud Hossain Opu/Dhaka Tribune
Tribune Desk
July 2, 2022 6:57 AM

The country's export may grow by 17% and gross domestic product (GDP) 0.26% if a free-trade agreement (FTA) is signed with member-states of the emerging Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) bloc.

The RCEP deal, which came into force in January this year, is considered high-quality, modern and comprehensive FTA between ten member-states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its five FTA partners.

The ASEAN members are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, while its FTA partners are Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and Korea.

A feature of the RCEP is that it represents the world's largest FTA, comprising about 30% of global GDP and about a third of the world population.

The economic cooperation bloc covers 2.3 billion people, contributes $25.8 trillion or about 30% of global GDP, and accounts for $12.7 trillion or over a quarter of global trade in goods and services, and 31% of global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows.

A recent study of the Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission (BTTC) shows that bilateral trade of Bangladesh with RCEP member-countries is mostly concentrated towards goods trade.

In the fiscal year 2020-21, Bangladesh exported goods worth $3.9 billion and imported goods worth $24.5 billion.

On the other hand, at the same time, the services export was $1.8 billion and import was worth $2.6 billion.

Bangladesh enjoys preferential market access to many of the RCEP countries, either through preferential trade agreement (PTA) or through GSP facilities.

After graduating from the least-developed country (LDC) status in 2026, the duty-free access will no longer be available except for reciprocal general preference under the Asia-Pacifica Trade Agreement (APTA).

In such a situation, sustaining the consistent progress achieved by Bangladesh in bilateral export trade with some of the RCEP countries as well as availing the opportunity to some potential destinations in RCEP will be a real challenge.

The study says RCEP includes some of the major export destinations as well as major import sources of Bangladesh.

Considering the bilateral-trade scenario, RCEP remains more as an important partner from the Bangladesh perspective.

Import from RCEP contributes around 43.92% of the total global import of Bangladesh, 55.33% of the total tax revenue and 58.56% of total revenue from customs duty collected under home consumption, as of FY21.

Since some major import sources of Bangladesh like China, Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia are involved with RCEP, there is a threat of losing certain amount of revenue from these countries.

More than 68% of total merchandise exports to RCEP are under apparel- product category.

Top twenty export items to RCEP mostly consist of apparel products and these twenty products constitute 64% of total export items.

The study found that the average most-favoured nation (MFN) tariff for Bangladesh has been comparatively higher than that of the RCEP members.

It said that the probable increase in import along with a comparatively protective regime of Bangladesh estimated a probable high revenue loss for Bangladesh compared to that of the RCEP.

However, as estimated trade creation would likely be higher than the trade-diversion effect for Bangladesh, it may generate additional revenue from other duties and charges, if not reduced due to a possible accession in RCEP, the study mentioned.

The Trade and Tariff Commission recommended that the government may express its positive stand regarding the accession of Bangladesh to RCEP through weighing all the pros and cons.

In that case, domestic rules and regulations may require to be changed in some cases, if situation arose.


Do it like, yesterday!!!!

We keep talking about FTAs but never sign any!!!
 
Just do it ASAP.
Once Myanmar stabilizes, establish friendly relationship with them, build rail/road connectivity with them.
 
To make this RCEP group complete, China needs to become a member and it will, at some point. 8-)

Levity aside, we have to measure what we are losing now (or in the future) in terms of trade with China, which is a major investor in our country.

Consider that we have the nearest equivalent of an FTA with China (with zero tariffs on every export to their market), and we have barely exported anything to China.

How will this FTA with RCEP be any different (or more valuable) ??
 
To make this RCEP group complete, China needs to become a member and it will, at some point. 8-)

Levity aside, we have to measure what we are losing now (or in the future) in terms of trade with China, which is a major investor in our country.

Consider that we have the nearest equivalent of an FTA with China (with zero tariffs on every export to their market), and we have barely exported anything to China.

How will this FTA with RCEP be any different (or more valuable) ??

We don’t have a competitive advantage with China yet. In fact, we assemble using their parts. Shipping their stuff back to them is not profitable.

Hopefully Walton will change that.

However, we do have a competitive advantage in certain sectors against the rest of east Asia. Eg low tech manufacturing.

Big multinationals will invest in our EPZs if an FTA is signed.

East Asia will also push to sell things like busses, trains and auto parts under an FTA.

This will reduce our dependence on India for mid level manufacturing.

It’s a win, win!
 
We don’t have a competitive advantage with China yet. In fact, we assemble using their parts. Shipping their stuff back to them is not profitable.

Hopefully Walton will change that.

However, we do have a competitive advantage in certain sectors against the rest of east Asia. Eg low tech manufacturing.

Big multinationals will invest in our EPZs if an FTA is signed.

East Asia will also push to sell things like busses, trains and auto parts under an FTA.

This will reduce our dependence on India for mid level manufacturing.

It’s a win, win!


Walton is not an assembler but more a manufacturer.

In smartphones it pretty much manufactures everything apart from SOCs and cameras. I think even the batteries are inhouse and Walton does 4K panels now for their TVs.

Saying this, the Chinese market in electronics is not really right for Walton which is targeting more developed countries in Europe and USA.

While an FTA with RCEP would be good, it is something for the long term(10+) years that will make any real difference in my opinion.

By far the largest markets like China and Japan already give either FTA or quotas to BD right now and so exactly would BD gain right now?

Trying to take too much economic engagement away from India is anyway not a good idea as India offers a huge and growing market and access to Nepal and Bhutan. A lot of trade with India and through India would give BD the leverage it wants and needs with India.
 
^^^

I will respectfully disagree with increasing trade any further with India. We have been losing this one-sided trade battle with them for fifty years, we don't need any more.

If anything we need to impose tariff's (even punitive tariffs) on their products and services, and substitute imports from other countries to reduce our dependence on their products. They are not fair trade partners and we in Bangladesh have seen enough.

They never want to buy, only sell their garbage in one-sided way.

In trade relationships with India, they will always take advantage and we will always run at least a fifteen to one deficit because of various trade tricks they have up their sleeve. Alleged 'dumping' NTB's are just the tip of the Iceberg.

This foreign policy component is a sad indicator of their relationship with other countries. Their only exports mostly go to countries which are underdeveloped and can be taken advantage of, like in the Gulf, South America and in Africa. In advanced countries their exports have faced severe scrutiny.

Their production costs are not hugely more than ours in low tech (lots of poor destitute people available). Our labor cost advantage vis-à-vis India will lower further and further until ours will be higher than theirs in another five/ten year's time.

So - dreaming of selling things to India will not become reality.

Sorry I have to say this, but this does not have any relationship with people to people relations.
 
Walton is not an assembler but more a manufacturer.

In smartphones it pretty much manufactures everything apart from SOCs and cameras. I think even the batteries are inhouse and Walton does 4K panels now for their TVs.

Saying this, the Chinese market in electronics is not really right for Walton which is targeting more developed countries in Europe and USA.

While an FTA with RCEP would be good, it is something for the long term(10+) years that will make any real difference in my opinion.

By far the largest markets like China and Japan already give either FTA or quotas to BD right now and so exactly would BD gain right now?

Trying to take too much economic engagement away from India is anyway not a good idea as India offers a huge and growing market and access to Nepal and Bhutan. A lot of trade with India and through India would give BD the leverage it wants and needs with India.

India is a very insecure and bigoted country.

They disrupt trade too frequently to assuage religious bigotry.

I agree that we need to increase trade with India but we also need to hedge our bets. They cannot monopolise any sector especially key infrastructure.

Their inherent bigotry and genocidal feelings towards Muslims will always make them a dangerous partner.

It’s akin to shacking up with a prostitute!

^^^

I will respectfully disagree with increasing trade any further with India. We have been losing this one-sided trade battle with them for fifty years, we don't need any more.

If anything we need to impose tariff's (even punitive tariffs) on their products and services, and substitute imports from other countries to reduce our dependence on their products. They are not fair trade partners and we in Bangladesh have seen enough.

They never want to buy, only sell their garbage in one-sided way.

In trade relationships with India, they will always take advantage and we will always run at least a fifteen to one deficit because of various trade tricks they have up their sleeve. Alleged 'dumping' NTB's are just the tip of the Iceberg.

This foreign policy component is a sad indicator of their relationship with other countries. Their only exports mostly go to countries which are underdeveloped and can be taken advantage of, like in the Gulf, South America and in Africa. In advanced countries their exports have faced severe scrutiny.

Their production costs are not hugely more than ours in low tech (lots of poor destitute people available). Our labor cost advantage vis-à-vis India will lower further and further until ours will be higher than theirs in another five/ten year's time.

So - dreaming of selling things to India will not become reality.

Sorry I have to say this, but this does not have any relationship with people to people relations.

Maybe there’s a middle ground between you and ukbengali.

He is right that only India can supply certain raw materials at competitive prices given the geographic proximity. And, being banyas, they will extract a price for that. Quid pro should be facilitating transportation to their NE states. But key infra and defence must be 100% off limits.

I think that’s a happy middle.
 
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India is a very insecure and bigoted country.

They disrupt trade too frequently to assuage religious bigotry.

I agree that we need to increase trade with India but we also need to hedge our bets. They cannot monopolise any sector especially key infrastructure.

Their inherent bigotry and genocidal feelings towards Muslims will always make them a dangerous partner.

It’s akin to shacking up with a prostitute!



Who cares as long as they serve BD interests. ;)

We also need to take into account access to Nepal and Bhutan that only India can facilitate.

GWs of cheap and clean hydroelectric power from both states need to be accessed, and BD has already signed off on a Nepalese hydroelectric project which will start providing 500MW in 2-3 years from now. More will follow and BD will get GWs by 2030.

Like I have said here before, China will rapidly lose competitiveness in garments sector as this decade progresses and BD will make a fortune both replacing and selling garments to them in years to come.

This by itself will act as a natural balance to being too dependent on India.

However, BD realises that its future prosperity is now entertwined with India and it should not be afraid of more and more deeper engagement as this will only make the two countries dependent on each other more.

What Hindu India may want to do will clash against geopolitical realities and one example is that they will annoy Nepal and Bhutan if they interfere with BD access to those states.

At the end of the day the most developed countries in the world mainly trade with their neighbours - USA/Canada/Mexico, Europe, China/Japan/S. Korea.


The idea that BD has any real alternative to India is a fantasy and this is not the way reality will play out over the coming decades.
 
Who cares as long as they serve BD interests. ;)

We also need to take into account access to Nepal and Bhutan that only India can facilitate.

GWs of cheap and clean hydroelectric power from both states need to be accessed, and BD has already signed off on a Nepalese hydroelectric project which will start providing 500MW in 2-3 years from now. More will follow and BD will get GWs by 2030.

Like I have said here before, China will rapidly lose competitiveness in garments sector as this decade progresses and BD will make a fortune both replacing and selling garments to them in years to come.

This by itself will act as a natural balance to being too dependent on India.

However, BD realises that its future prosperity is now entertwined with India and it should not be afraid of more and more deeper engagement as this will only make the two countries dependent on each other more.

What Hindu India may want to do will clash against geopolitical realities and one example is that they will annoy Nepal and Bhutan if they interfere with BD access to those states.

At the end of the day the most developed countries in the world mainly trade with their neighbours - USA/Canada/Mexico, Europe, China/Japan/S. Korea.


The idea that BD has any real alternative to India is a fantasy and this is not the way reality will play out over the coming decades.

Japan, Korea and Taiwan developed by almost exclusively trading with the west.

I understand that is no longer an option due to the declining fortunes of the west.

But a hybrid one is still an option.
 
Japan, Korea and Taiwan developed by almost exclusively trading with the west.

I understand that is no longer an option due to the declining fortunes of the west.

But a hybrid one is still an option.



BD is going for a "hybrid" option.


West/China and India for next 10-15 years and then others will be brought in slowly as required.


They are all being used to balance each other. :smitten:
 
Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are welcome to join the group RCEP the largest free trading block in the world, but India the spoiler as in nearly every org it joined need not come, good that it is out now otherwise RCEP would be paralyzed by now, hope India will never come back to RCEP.

US need not come too, first, it's not in the Asia region, second, if US join RCEP, it will spoil and paralyze the org to impose its own agendas on the org no doubt. So, @Viet, you are out of luck, you Viets' daddy US won't be allowed to join RCEP to oppose China as you Viets wish, China won't allow US to join.
 
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BD is going for a "hybrid" option.


West/China and India for next 10-15 years and then others will be brought in slowly as required.


They are all being used to balance each other. :smitten:

Yep!

That’s the happy middle.

We need to keep playing the “big powers” against each other.

Our geopolitical card:

1. Ability to cut off the seven sisters.

2. Providing a buffer to China in any war by denying India land routes.

3. Bay Of Bengal

None of them can afford to push us because it might push us towards their bitter rival.

India’s nightmare is letting China have a naval base.

China’s nightmare is allowing India land corridor during a war.

America’s nightmare is all of the above.
 
Here is a locally published report from 2021. I don't know how credible some of the claims made are, or if this is being foisted by Indian govt.

RCEP Agreement: Vietnam’s Gain, Bangladesh’s Loss?​

Profile

LightCastle Analytics Wing​

January 5, 2021
RCEP Agreement: Vietnam’s Gain, Bangladesh’s Loss?

The Regional Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) is the world’s largest trade agreement, covering 30 percent of global GDP and 27 percent of global merchandise trade. Signed in November 2020, the trade bloc comprises 15 members, including the 10 nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. The agreement is projected to increase the GDP of the member states by 0.4 percent (equivalent to USD 170 billion) by 2030.[1]

Bangladesh was neither part of the negotiations group that led to the agreement nor invited by any member states. Experts believe Bangladesh may lose exports, investment, and trade to the countries of the bloc, especially Vietnam. Both countries have had strong economic growth over the past few years and have competed in sectors such as RMG. It is feared that by joining the trade bloc, Vietnam will be able to compete better against Bangladesh.

In this article, LightCastle Partners take a look at whether Bangladesh stands to lose from Vietnam as a result of RCEP and whether Bangladesh should consider joining the bloc.

The Agreement and its provisions​

The key provisions of the RCEP agreement that will benefit the signatories are:
  1. Removal of non-tariff barriers: The agreement focuses on reduction of non-tariff barriers on goods and service trade between the member countries. Import tariffs were already low among the member countries as a result of existing trade agreements such as ASEAN-China FTA, ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand FTA, China-Australia FTA, and Japan-Korea FTA.
  2. Uniform product standards: The provisions imposed by member countries on the trade in goods are harmonized, which provides more certainty for traders and investors.
  3. Uniform rule of origin: This provision is the most important feature of the agreement. Member countries need to have at least 40 percent of its product produced in any one of the 15 countries to be eligible for duty reductions.
The agreement has provisions for service sectors, e-commerce activities, and movement of people. Projections predict that ASEAN countries are expected to earn USD 19 billion annually from the increased trade as a result of the agreement.[2]

RCEP to benefit Vietnam over Bangladesh in RMG exports & FDI​

Vietnam is considered Bangladesh’s major competitor in the Ready Made Garments (RMG) sector. The Southeast Asian country is also in a position to displace Bangladesh as the world’s 2nd largest exporter of RMG; Vietnamese apparels earned USD 30.94 billion in exports compared to Bangladesh’s $28.82 billion in FY 2019-20.[3]

img_5feb2dd3b7be5.png
Figure: Apparel Exports (in USD millions) by Bangladesh & Vietnam/Source: World Trade Organization

The RCEP Agreement can increase Vietnam’s RMG exports to member countries that may further worsen Bangladesh’s position. Under the uniform rules of origin provision, Vietnamese RMG companies will be able to source production inputs from member states and still be able to qualify for preferential treatments.[4] As a result, Vietnam will be able to increase RMG exports by selling at competitive prices rivaling those of Bangladesh. The latter may lose its competitive edge in RMG export to major RCEP RMG importers like Japan and emerging Asian RMG importers like China as a result.

Competition with Vietnam will harm Bangladesh’s overall trade with RCEP countries as well. Some of Bangladesh’s top trading partners include signatories like Japan, China, South Korea, and Malaysia. The removal of trade barriers will definitely help Vietnam increase its exports to these countries. However, Bangladesh will not be able to enjoy such gains.

CountryExports (in million USD)Rank
Japan1200.787
Australia678.1913
China600.1115
South Korea352.8220
Malaysia236.3723
Hong Kong139.6827

Table: Bangladesh’s exports (in million USD) to selected RCEP members for FY 2019-20/Source: Export Promotion Bureau

RCEP’s duty removal and rules of origin provisions can disproportionately affect domestic industries in Bangladesh such as electronics and automobile industries. Like those of Vietnam, these industries depend on countries like China, Japan, and South Korea for raw materials and thus need to pay import duties. With the signing of RCEP, however, Vietnamese electronics and automobile manufacturers can purchase inputs without duty from the aforementioned countries who are also signatories of RCEP.

On the other hand, Bangladeshi counterparts will continue to pay import tariffs. This will discourage industries from setting up in Bangladesh and integrating further within the global supply chain network.

Vietnam and other RCEP countries with low labor costs comparable to Bangladesh such as Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos will also be able to compete in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The uniform rules of origin provision will create a connected supply chain among the member states, multiplying the benefits to be achieved from RCEP by creating backward industrial linkage and cluster agglomerations. This linkage can be seen as attractive among foreign investors as they can source cost-effectively and sell their products to markets such as China without fear of duties.

Is RCEP a zero-sum game for Bangladesh?​

Although Vietnam may gain a competitive advantage for its RMG sector against Bangladesh, the latter may not consider the RCEP an immediate threat. Bangladesh mainly exports apparel to Europe whereas Vietnam exports to Asia where the majority of the countries are now part of the agreement. Thus, Bangladesh does not need to fear losing its major market from Vietnam due to RCEP.
However, Bangladesh might lose market share in the EU as a result of the Vietnam-EU Free Trade Agreement that came into force in July 2020.

img_5feb2dd4be2ca.png
Figure: RMG Exports by destination (in percentage) 2018/Source: The Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC)

Bangladesh also does not need to worry about losing its competitive edge when it comes to exports to its major Asian trading partners, China and India, as a consequence of RCEP. India participated in the negotiations round of RCEP but backed out in 2019 as it feared dumping of Chinese imports and backlash from trade associations. While China is a member of the RCEP agreement, Bangladesh already enjoys duty benefits to Chinese markets. Besides, China has offered duty-free and quota-free access to 8,256 Bangladeshi products – including ready-made garments, fish, agricultural products, and agro-processing products since July 2020.[5]

There is still a silver lining for Bangladesh from the increase in FDI in Vietnam as a result of RCEP. As investment in the Southeast Asian country increases, the industrial activity is saturating as the Vietnamese workforce approaches peak utilization. Therefore, the Vietnamese government has begun prioritizing FDI in high-value-added industries, such as in advanced technology and manufacturing, tourism, and high-tech farming. In line with demand for the workforce, the cost of labor is also likely to increase.[6] Bangladesh, which has established itself as a low-end RMG hub and has a competitive advantage in labor costs, can therefore retain and attract FDI.

The way forward: Joining RCEP for post-LDC benefits​

Bangladesh may not lose much in the short term by not joining the RCEP trade bloc. However, it must consider the long-term implications of not joining. Bangladesh will graduate from LDC status in 2023 and will lose duty-free access to major trading partners including the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and the European Union’s Everything But Arm (EBA) facilities by 2027. The country will try to negotiate for the continuation of a GSP scheme post-2027 and is in bilateral negotiations regarding trade with multiple RCEP countries such as Indonesia and Japan. But neither the extension of GSP facilities nor the signing of the bilateral treaties with major Asian trade partners is guaranteed to happen by 2027.

To continue enjoying such preferential treatments, policymakers should look ahead and consider signing multilateral trade agreements including joining the RCEP bloc. Most of the RCEP bloc nations have been able to successfully control the current pandemic. Some of the member states such as China and Vietnam are expected to have positive GDP growth rates for FY 2020-21. On the other hand, Europe and the United States, Bangladesh’s major exporting partners, are suffering from a renewed spread and it will affect their economies for a long time. By joining the RCEP bloc, Bangladesh will be able to diversify its export market and hedge itself from the economic downturns of its conventional export partners.

Farhan Uddin, Content Writer, and Saif Nazrul, Senior Business Consultant at LightCastle Partners, have prepared the write-up. For further clarifications, contact here: saif.nazrul@lightcastlebd.com

References​

 

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